A full closed mathematical model to describe and calculate Kondratiev’s long wave (LW) of economic development is presented for the first time. The innovative process that generates a new long wave in the economy is described as a stochastic Poisson process. The key role in constructing production functions during both the upward and downward trends of the LW is played by the self-similarity property of the innovative process, which is determined by its fractal structure. The role of the switch from an upward wave to a downward one is played by entrepreneurial profit; this article places primary emphasis on calculation of it. The practical effect of the model developed is illustrated through predictive calculations of GDP movement paths and the number of employees in the economy and the dynamics of fixed physical capital formation and growth of labor productivity by the example of the development of the US economy during the coming sixth Kondratiev LW (2018–2050).
More frequent disasters are becoming a cause of greater damage to states and regions of the world. Correct economic evaluation of these losses is a topical scientific and practical problem. Its solution allows us to measure and understand, on the one hand, the scale and depth of the consequences of the effect of this factor on the stability and dynamics of socioeconomic development and the security of specific territories and, on the other hand, the volume and structure of the needs for resources necessary to mitigate these consequences and restore (maintain) normal life conditions. This article presents an analytical overview of domestic and international approaches to the economic evaluation of losses and damage from natural disasters; the author’s approach to the evaluation of direct, indirect, and full damage is presented
The newsbreak for writing this article was a kind of jubilee: 25 years ago, in 1992, a conference in Rio de Janeiro adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This event became the first in a series of follow-up conferences and documents aimed primarily at limiting carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere to counter global warming. The author is an active advocate of the concept of the anthropogenic impact on climate as a leading factor in climate change. He stresses the positive potential of international agreements in this field and a new energy-environmental paradigm, which implies the development of low-carbon industry and transition to renewable energy sources and the “green” economy.
With regard to social disciplines, a question continually arises: are mathematical methods fit for analyzing historical and social processes? Obviously, we should not absolutize differences between fields of knowledge, but the division of sciences into two opposite types, made by W. Windelband and H. Rickert, is still valid. As is known, they singled out sciences involving nomo-thetic methods, i.e., looking for general laws and generalizing phenomena, and those applying idiographic methods, i.e., describing individual and unique events and objects. Rickert attributed history to the second type. In his opinion, history always aims at picturing an isolated and more or less wide course of development in all its uniqueness and individuality
The little-studied phenomenon of the combination of centralization and decentralization in the management of the Soviet economy during the Great Patriotic War is analyzed. Decentralization of management is considered as a mechanism to adjust contradictions between centralized planning and the expansion of producers’ independence. The problem is investigated using the example of the operational activities of the Soviet people’s commissariats and their interaction with each other and with the top leadership of the Soviet Union. The focus is on two interrelated processes. The first is the stabilization of the corps of economic managers and their authorization with additional formal powers. The second is the informal and unauthorized practices of decentralization used by the leaders of the people’s commissariats to achieve the goals posed before them. This article is based on the study of a complex of archival documents, primarily resolutions of the USSR State Defense Committee.
Contrary to F. Fukuyama's prediction about the "end of history," recent events prove the opposite. History, it seems, has come not to an end but rather to the beginning of new colossal changes. Humankind has found itself on the threshold of a new landmark; in such epochs, the influence of outstanding personalities on the future historical development may be especially significant
The question about the origin of the state has been highly debated for more than two centuries. Production, trade, and military theories are sufficiently popular at present. E.R. Service's theory of mutual profit also has its adherents.
The article considers the processes of the production and property deconcentration in the Russian agri- culture and forestry during the period of systemic economic crisis of 1990s and the processes of the produc- tion concentration and of the vertically-integrated companies formation during the period of compensato- ry industrialisation of 2000-s. Special attention is paid to impact these processes made on spatial organisa- tion of the rural areas of the Non-Black Soil region of the European part of Russia and on the socio-eco- nomic conditions of rural communities. The conclusion is made that agriculture and forestry — the loner (raw material supply j stages of the technological chains of the agri- and timber-industrial complexes — had suffered the most during the economic recession and has been usually becoming the objects, not the subjects, of the vertical integration during the subsequent economic growth.
This article analyzes the major trends in development of relations between Russia and China for the current period and the near-term future. The features of Russia–China partnership in the political-military sphere are presented as well as their interaction in different regions of the world, their bilateral trade, and economic, investment, and humanitarian cooperation. In addition, this article highlights the first steps made by the two countries for formation of Greater Eurasia within conjunction of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Chinese One Belt–One Road initiative.