Complex forecasting scheme for surface meteorological values

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2014. No. 5. P. 283–291.

Bagrov A. N., Gordin V. A., Bykov P. L.

The evaluations of the forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the period July 2010 - June 2013 are presented. The forecasting of surface air temperature at 5 days and precipitation at 3 days are considered. Our complex statistical scheme uses the results of the best foreign global schemes, regional scheme COSMO-RU7.  The joint statistical accounting of different kind of the systematic errors in the complex forecasting allows to exceed the quality of every original forecasting schemes. The complex forecasting scheme is operative, and its results are published on the website of the Hydrometeorological center of Russia everyday at 9 : 15 a.m. Moscow time. The website also provides forecasts of extremal temperatures, temperature dew-point and wind velocity about the earth surface.

Keywords: ошибки прогноза, температура, temperature, forecasting model, precipitation, осадки, forecast errors, прогностическая модель