Влияние мер тарифной политики на глобальные рынки минеральных удобрений: количественная оценка

Проблемы прогнозирования. 2025. № 5(212). С. 47–60.

Zekhov M. S., Pilnik N., Radionov S.

The article quantifies the impact of tariff policy measures on the global markets of phosphorus containing mineral fertilizers—monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP). The analysis employs a mathematical model of spatially distributed markets based on the concept of economic equilibrium. The model takes into account production capacities and costs of producers, demand volumes of consumers, as well as logistics costs for delivering products between regions.

A scenario analysis of five alternative development paths was conducted: a baseline scenario of continuing current trends, two scenarios of tightening tariff policies, and two scenarios of their liberalization in the United States and Europe. The study revealed that tariff increases lead to the same effect for both types of fertilizers—the exit of producers from regulated markets. At the same time, the consequences of tariff reductions differ: the liberalization of the European market favors all DAP producers and MAP suppliers, pushing competitors to less advantageous positions, while the American scenario benefits MAP producers while simultaneously relocating DAP producers to less profitable markets.

Keywords: логистика, logistics, тарифная политика, tariff policy, пространственные модели, spatial models, mineral fertilizers, минеральные удобрения, producer's problem, задача производителя

Publication based on the results of: Current Issues of Macroeconomic Dynamics and Macroeconomic Policy in Russia (2025)