Циклическая динамика развития Мир-Системы

Сложные системы. 2013. № 3 (8). С. 4–50.

Куркина Е. С., Knyazeva H., Куретова Е. Д.

The global evolution of the world community as an integrated self-organizing and self-developing system is studied in the article; and some main features and laws of its evolution are exposed. The attention is focused on the consideration of cyclic character of evolution, of periods of the global history of mankind, of the growth of complexity and the birth of technological, social and cultural innovation as a result of passing through crises. This is an interdisciplinary research which relies upon the results of mathematical modeling. The models elaborated by Ivan M. Diakonov, Sergey P. Kapitsa, M. Kremer, Sergey P. Kurdyumov as well as the model of macroevolution of World-System developed by L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotaev and S.Yu. Malkov are analyzed. The evolution of the world commonwealth is considered as a stage of the universal (global) evolutionary process starting from Big Bang and up to emergence of life, appearance of a human being. The development of World-System in a blow-up regime leads to the strongest stratification of society, to the strengthening of instability and unevenness of development of countries and territories, to disintegration of complex geopolitical structures, and to the threat of collapse of civilization. As a positive alternative, the authors discuss opportunities of management of the future and of the choice of a favorable path of development of mankind. These opportunities are based on the understanding of the principles of co-evolution of nature and mankind as well as of complex social and geopolitical structures.

Keywords: глобализация, самоорганизация, globalization, синергетика, сложная система, self-organization, synergetics, complexity, сложность, Мир-Система, coevolution, коэволюция, complex systems, universal evolutionism, универсальный эволюционизм, blow-up regime, режим с обострением, World-System, model of evolution of S.P. Kudyumov, cycles of history, модель эволюции С.П. Курдюмова, циклы истории