Межэтнические различия в вероятностях первого и второго рождения в условиях низкой рождаемости (на примере Кабардино-Балкарии и Ставропольского края)

Демографическое обозрение. 2024. Т. 11. № 4. С. 189–213.

Kazenin K., Mitrofanova E.

The paper compares fertility parameters of two ethnic groups of Russia: Kabardians of the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria (North Caucasus) and Russians of that region and the neighboring Stavropol region. This comparison allows an assessment of the specific aspects of inter-ethnic fertility differences that may persist among ethnic groups which have reached the final stages of the First demographic transition, live in similar socio-economic conditions and have regular social contacts with each other. In this context, convergence of fertility levels and timing characteristics generally is expected.

Analysis of a quantitative survey conducted in Kabardino-Balkaria and the Stavropol region in 2023 has shown that certain differences in fertility persist among women of the two ethnic groups. Event history analysis of birth histories of women of 1979-1993 birth cohorts has revealed interethnic differences for the chances of a second child birth and the time interval between the first and second births. Moreover, the timing difference becomes stronger from the older to the younger cohorts.

The possibility of explaining these differences by sociocultural factors and the difference in ideas about the optimal model of reproductive behavior is discussed. In this regard, some results of a qualitative survey undertaken in the same two regions in 2023 were presented as well. In general, the study confirms that interethnic differences in certain fertility parameters may be preserved in the context where socio-economic support of these differences is weak.

Keywords: рождаемость, Северный Кавказ, этничность, fertility, Russians, русские, North Caucasus, ethnicity, event history analysis, анализ наступления событий, кабардинцы, Kabardians