Миграционный опыт и рождаемость в послевоенных поколениях россиян
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing in Egypt when the country was experiencing a period of exceedingly rapid economic growth. We find labor migration of unprecedented scale to be the main reason which engendered this seemingly paradoxical situation. We further proceed to analyze the UN forecast on the dynamics of the Egyptian urban population proportion up to 2050, which implies a return to the logistic trend and rapid growth of the urban population share, which is fraught with socio-political instability risks. However, we present data proving that the logistic urbanization trajectory is not inevitable for Egypt, and the destabilization risks connected with the rapid increase of urban population share are largely irrelevant to Egypt in the forecasted period.
Markedly low fertility rates in Russia and western European countries are real challenges for these states. The governments should determine what considerations guide the people who refuse giving birth to their fi rst or subsequent children, as well as the should understand what measures they can encourage parents to increase the number of children. The following paper shows that, as in Europe, it is very important in Russia to take into account indirect costs of children, and in Russia a parent who is meant in this situation is the mother. However, for Russia the possibility to have children is very closely related to the type of locality, which in the case of our country also means the difference in income and the difference in the established system of external child care.
The author shows that demographic transition is an organic part of civilization developments. Such phenomen as death rate and birth rate, changes in character of migration are connected with stages of development of a civilization.