Intelligent System for Prediction Box Office of the Film
Abstract. This article describes a mathematical model designed to predict the
box office of movies. The model is based on a neural network trained on data
about films obtained from open sources. Computer experiments were performed
by the method of “freezing”: with the help of a neural network calculations were
performed with a gradual change in the value of one of the input parameters of
the model, while the remaining input parameters were not changed. It is
established that the size of the film budget has the greatest impact on the amount
of box office among all other input parameters. However, its impact is not
always positive. It is established that the United States, as a country that takes
part in the production of the film, is able to have the greatest impact on box
office compared to other countries. According to the research the duration of the
film to varying degrees can affect the amount of box office. Moreover, the power
of influence depends on such a factor as the genre of the film. As a rule, the
power of this influence increases with the increasing semantic load of the film.
The practical value of the study is that the created mathematical model can be
used to optimize costs when planning the production of new films.
The book considers the main stages of development of the leading genre of the world and English literature, based on the example of a number of English novelists of the XIX - XXI centuries. The chapters of the monograph, written by scholars of British literature from Moscow, Minsk, Yekaterinburg, Vladivostok, Kazan, Oxford, Saratov, Ufa and Perm, analyze the artistic originality of selected works of Jane Austen, Charles Dickens, Anthony Trollope, George Eliot, Thomas Hardy, Virginia Woolf, D.H. Lawrence, Evelyn Waugn, Graham Green, Iris Murdock, Hilary Mantel and others. The book demonstrates the functioning of the English novel tradition, creatively and innovatively developed by English novelists over two centuries. The chapters provide an in-depth analysis of a number of works that have played a pivotal role in the dynamism of the English and world novelism. The monograph is intended for literary scholars, students, Master and graduate students as well as for everyone interested in English literature. It can be a teaching aid when reading courses in the history of English literature and the history of the English novel.
The article concerns the novels by Norman Mailer written in 1980-2000. It considers the main themes and problems of the works studied. Social and cultural context of the books is distinguished as one of the most significant in Mailer's controversial poetics. The writer intended both to follow and to transform traditions of literature of realism and postmodernism.
Recently there has been a significant amount of research in the fields of discourse and genre. However, a more complete description of the genre peculiarities of political discourse is needed, which is why in this article one more genre of political discourse is singled out – the genre of president’s victory speech.
The functional description of inaugural addresses made by Sheygal E.I. serves as a basis of the description in question. The comparative analysis of two genres – the inaugural address and the victory speech – is carried out. It has turned out that both genres are similar in the following functions: integrative, inspirative and performative. In addition, the list of the shared functions can be extended by an interdiscursive function, which consists in implicit and explicit referring to predecessors’ discourses and in appealing to common knowledge shared by the author and the audience.
Nevertheless, a number of differences between two genres in question can be seen. For example, following the Sheygal’s ideas, inaugural addresses also fulfill a declarative function as they contain a considerable amount of didactic information. In contrast, victory speeches are characterized by a more significant degree of expressivity, which gives decisive influence on stylistic characteristic of words. That is why one can single out the expressive function of victory speeches.
The overview on the functions of victory speeches and inaugural addresses is supported by examples taken from Barack Obama’s discourse.
This article investigates how the combination of positions between the Board of Directors and the management affects bank’s profitability. We use the 2010 bank-level data from 112 countries (Bankscope). Our results suggest that the positions combination reduce both banks’ ROA and ROE. We also show that the higher is the proportion of the Board members, who also hold a managerial position, the lower is the profitability of a bank. Thus, the corporate governance regulation should go beyond a simple restriction on holding simultaneously the CEO and the head of Board of Directors positions.
This article addresses the issue of unobserved heterogeneity in film characteristics influence on box-office. We argue that the analysis of pooled samples, most common among researchers, does not shed light on underlying segmentations and leads to significantly different estimates obtained by researchers running similar regressions for movie success modeling. For instance, it may be expected that a restrictive MPAA rating is a box office poison for a family comedy, whereas it insignificantly influences an action movie’s revenues. Using a finite mixture model we extract two latent groups, the differences between that can be explained in part by the movie genre, the source, the creative type and the production method. On the basis of this result, the authors recommend developing separate movie success models for different segments, rather than adopting an approach, that was commonly used in previous research, when one explanatory or predictive model is developed for the whole sample of movies.
This article is devoted to the method of creating an intelligent neural network system. Unlike existing similar systems, the proposed system does not require frequent updates, because it is able to adapt itself to the constantly changing state of the economy and to the peculiarities of a particular region. Besides, the proposed system allows performing scenario forecasting of regional real estate markets depending on virtually changing economic parameters such as the dollar rate, the market price of oil, gross domestic product and gross regional product, the volume of housing construction in the region, the parameters of the state’s credit policy, etc.
The actuality of scenario forecasting of economy of Russia is stipulated by the importance of timely assessment of the situation in the country and crisis prevention actions. The goal of the researchis definition of outlook for the development of economy of Russia on the basis of scenario forecasting. The basis of the expert and statistical Bayesian method are basic scenarios of the development of economy; problem situations, resolution events. Forecasting is based on four pillars - formation of basic scenarios; description of problem situations and related events; expert assessment of realization of events (experts - doctors of sciences); calculation of chances of a scenarios of parameters of model. Following the analysis of the current trends, 18 issues, each resolved by 5 events, are revealed. The experts assessedprior and posterior odds of the events of the revealed issues. Formal and statistical check of competence of the experts was carried out on the basis of the hierarchy analysis method by T. Saati. The generalized assessments of the experts are counted. The order of solution of the issues is defined in a random manner, the choice of the event is modeled by the Monte-Carlo method, theprobabilities of scenarios for the obtained chainare calculated stepwise. Procedures are repeated many times for achievement of stable values. Following the modeling process, the results of the forecast are obtained.
The book examines the electronic hypertext structure in the aspect of the theory of speech genres. Electronic hypertext is presented as a set of functionally integral unit, within which the text line to enter different types of relationships. The book analyzes the linguistic realization of links in the network blog community "Vladivostok", according to this description is made of a particular genre of computer-mediated communication. The book is addressed to specialists in the field of linguistics dealing with the problems of text linguistics, discourse, and computer-mediated communication. It will be interesting for students and graduate students of philological faculties, as well as a wide range of readers interested in the creation of the user interface, hypertext structures of various genres.