Объединенная математическая модель роста рака молочной железы

С. 281–283.

Tyuryumina E.

This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. The opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) were analysed in order to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. Our results suggest a new «Consolidated mathematical growth Model of the Primary tumor and the Secondary distant metastases» (CoMPaS). The CoMPaS is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth (parameter T) and the secondary distant metastases growth (parameter M). Also, CoMPaS associates with data of 10–15-year survival in patients with the different tumor stage. Analysis of the metastases «nonvisible period» growth indicate the case of discrepancy between 15-year survival depending on tumor stage. In conclusion, the CoMPaS and supporting computer program were build to improve the accuracy of the forecast on survival of breast cancer and facilitate the optimisation of diagnosing secondary distant metastases. This led to completely original results that show how the growth rate of the metastases can change in relation to the growth rate of the primary tumour, taking into consideration its size and diameter of the tumour. 

Keywords: математическая модель, выживаемость, Рак молочной железы, Breast cancer, Mortality analysis, mathematical modelling

In book

Сборник тезисов участников форума «Наука будущего — наука молодых»

Т. 1. , М.: Инконсалт К, 2016.