Возвращение США на Тихий океан

The paper discusses the issue of leadership as a central problems of the US Grand Strategy as America is adjusting to a transforming international system, marked by increasing multipolarity, interdependence and heterogeneity, and decreasing governability. It also tackles the US commitment to global leadership as one of central problems of the US-Russia relations, especially at a time when Moscow’s foreign policy is increasingly marked with the concept and ideology of multipolarity and, consequently, equality in relations with the USA. The paper also addresses key components of Obama Administration Grand Strategy, such as renewing or establishing strategic partnerships with the old and new power centers in the world, and the “pivot” to Asia, and provides detailed illustration of the theoretical theses made by examples from the US-Russia relations. Finally, the paper suggests some counters for transformation of the US leadership, in order to make it more compatible with the evolution of the international system and benign for the US relations with Russia

Added: Feb 20, 2014

The Us-Russia Relations After The “Reset”: Pragmatism Or A New Confrontation?

Suslov D. Basic research program. WP BRP. National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2013

The US-Russia relations are entering a new political season in a shape which is far from being perfect. The “reset” is over, and throughout the years 2011 and especially 2012 the relations have worsened again. Political leadership of both countries is irritated and disappointed with each other. Unlike the last four years, neither Russia nor the US will invest much political capital in their relations improvement, and their relative priority will decrease in both countries’ foreign policies. The share of contradictions in the relations surpasses that of positive cooperation again. Yet, the paper argues, a new worsening of the US-Russia relations or their new stagnation over the next years is in neither side’s interests. The US and Russia still do have an important positive agenda to work on, which is crucial for both sides’ vital national interests. It includes, above all, Afghanistan and the Asia Pacific. The major impediment of progress on both dimensions, the author claims, will be in the near- and middle term future a lack of political will on both sides to move the relations forward.

Added: Feb 20, 2014

Художественное осмысление действительности в зарубежной литературе

Edited by: О. Н. Редина Вып. 2. М.: Издательство МГОУ, 2012.

Added: Mar 25, 2014

Позиции России в мировой экономике в свете присоединения к ВТО

Портанский А. П. В кн.: Мир XXI века: сценарии будущего для России. Вып. 274. М.: Русский сувенир, 2011. С. 94-103.

Added: Feb 21, 2013

Мусульманская община в США: проблемы адаптации

Суслова М. Н. Общественные науки и современность. 2011. № 6. С. 123-131.

The article examines special politically-legal and social status of Muslim community in the USA. Not only positive experience of ethnopolitical integration is described, but also a number of problems connected to this situation.

Added: Sep 17, 2012

Вашингтон пересматривает свои торговые приоритеты

Портанский А. П. США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. 2010. № 12. С. 27-40.

For the first time since World War II, the U.S. seem to lose leadership at the multilateral trade talks shifting accents to bilateral and regional trade cooperation. The main reason for the shift is a deadlock at the WTO Doha-round negotiations where the U.S. face opposition of the steadily growing economies of India, China and Brazil.

Торговые переговоры, ГАТТ, ВТО, США, многосторонняя торговая система, ЕС, Япония, ИНДИЯ, КИТАЙ, Бразилия, Дж. Буш-мл., Б. Обама, М. Баррозу, Р. Зеллик, П. Лами, Р. Кирк, Л. да Силва, Карел де Гюхт, АТЭС, НАФТА, АСЕАН, трансатлантическое партнерство, "двадцатка", trade talks, GATT, WTO, U.S., Multilateral Trading System, Eu, Japan, India, China, Brazil, G.-W. Bush, B. Obama, M. Barrozo, R. Zoellick, P. Lamy, R. Kirk, L. da Silva, Karel de Gucht, APEC, NAFTA, ASEAN, Transatlantic Partnership, G 20

Added: Oct 3, 2012

Экономические интересы России, Китая и Запада в Средней Азии

Суздальцев А. И., Братерский М. В. В кн.: Материалы V Конвента Российской ассоциации международных исследований. Мировая политика: взгляд из будущего. Т. 5: Будущее стабильности и безопасности в регионе Центральной Азии. М.: МГИМО-Университет, 2009. С. 181-193.

Added: Feb 10, 2013

Художественное осмысление действительности в зарубежной литературе: межвузовский сб. науч. тр.

Edited by: И. Е. Лунина Вып. 3. М.: Издательство МГОУ, 2013.

Added: Mar 25, 2014

Copula-Based Univariate Time Series Structural Shift Identification Test

Penikas H. I. Математические методы анализа решений в экономике, бизнесе и политике. WP7. Издательский дом ВШЭ, 2012

An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components. Several nice properties of copula application to time series are discussed. To identify the break copula structural shift test is applied. Data on quarterly GDP growth rate for the US from 1947 till 2012 is used as an empirical example. It is shown that the proposed approach captures the recession of 1981-1982 as the key break date in GDP growth rate series time structure that cannot be identified by standard time series structural break tests.

Added: Feb 10, 2013