Book
Proceedings of the Conference on Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems and Processes 2020 (MACSPro 2020)
Summary: There were 22 papers submitted for peer-review to the conference. Out of these, 16 papers were accepted for this volume, 7 as regular papers and 9 as short papers.
Based on the basic principles of the self-organized criticality theory, we proposed an identifiers of network criticality. The identifiers allow you to determine the subcritical and supercritical phases of Twitter, using only the results of the analysis of the time series of microposts. The most significant result is the existence of two classes of time series of microposts and tweet Ids corresponding to them. The first class of the time series corresponds to the subcritical phase of the network. On the contrary, the second class corresponds to the supercritical phase.
We consider a general equilibrium model in a multisector economy with 𝑛 high-tech sectors where singleproduct firms compete monopolistically producing a differentiated good. Homogeneous sector is characterized by perfect competition. Workers attempt to find a job in high-tech sectors because of higher wages. However, it is possible for them to remain unemployed. Wages of employees in high-tech sectors are set by firms as a result of negotiations. Unemployment persists in equilibrium by labor market imperfections. All the consumers have identical preferences defined by a separable utility function of general form. We find the conditions such that the general equilibrium in the model exists and is unique. The conditions are formulated in terms of the elasticity of substitution between varieties of the differentiated good. We show that basic properties of the model can be described using families of hypergeometric functions.
This paper presents a compositional conformance checking approach between nested Petri nets and event logs of multi-agent systems. By projecting an event log onto model components, one can perform conformance checking between each projected log and the corresponding component. We formally demonstrate the validity of our approach proving that, to check fitness of a nested Petri net is equivalent to check fitness of each of its components. Leveraging the multi-agent system structure of nested Petri nets, this approach may provide specific conformance diagnostics for each system component as well as to avoid to compute artificial boundaries when decomposing a model for conformance checking.
Соглашения Базель II и III позволяют банкам использовать собственную статистику дефолтов для оценки параметров регулирования (риск-весов) в нормативе достаточности капитала. Банк вносит собственные оценки параметров в модель Васичека. На выходе получается распределение кредитных потерь. Регулятор требует взять 99.9%-ный квантиль такого распределения как меру риска (риск-вес). Говоря регулятор, мы имеем в виду любой Центральный Банк, который разрешает использовать данный подход внутренних рейтингов (ПВР). Это относится и к Банку России, но не ограничено им. Хотя ПВР критикуют как избыточно консервативную оценку риска, в работе приведено доказательство обратного. А именно то, когда ПВР недооценивает кредитный риск. Это следствие обнаруженного факта связи корреляции дефолтов и реализаций системного фактора. Последним может быть рассмотрен темп роста ВВП для примера. Такая связь не заложена в модели Васичека. Для обоснования найденного использована статистика по кредитам США с 1984 по 2019 гг. Для с учетом 100%-ной корреляции активов в модели Васичека показано, что кредитный риск недооценивается на 11%, как минимум.
In this paper, we study automatic recognition and counting of vehicles in the wild. For this problem, we tested several object detection models for car type recognition among five classes: Bicycle, Bus, Car, Motorcycle, Truck, Van. We extend existing dataset in order to balance classes and achieve classification quality for detected cars with 92% mAP
The paper describes a system that extracts facts and opinions from documentary texts to create a domain ontology of a controversial topic for Chernobyl disaster. The pipeline of the system is based on RNNbased NER module, which was tested on an annotated text corpora.
We consider the task of content-based video retrieval (CBVR) given a query video, which is expected to match if it is a distorted short subsequence of a reference video from a database. In this paper, we present a CBVR system architecture that is both robust and scalable. We use a modified rHash frame fingerprint generation method. It is both, extremely robust to distortions and fast to compute. We utilize the Faiss library, developed by Facebook Research, to index fingerprint binary vectors. The VCDB dataset is used for benchmarking.
Enterprise software systems are usually large and complex. They can have complicated architecture and millions of different states. It is difficult to imagine a process of designing new software system or analysis of developed system without various modeling techniques. Visual presentation of the software system structure and behavior provides possibilities which can facilitate better analysis. Graphical notation of the Petri net formalism is often used for software system description. An extension of Petri net is the high-level Petri net formalism can be successfully used for the description of modular software systems. There are a lot of related tools that can be used for “static” visualization of high-level Petri net. The current work considers possible methods of dynamic visualization of high-level Petri nets which describe software system from behavioral perspective.
Main concepts and models of the modern theory of self-organization of complex systems, called also synergetics, are generalized and formulated in the book as principles of a synergetic world view. They are under discussion in the context of philosophical studies of holism, teleology, evolutionism as well as of gestalt-psychology; they are compared with some images from the history of human culture. The original and unfamiliar (to the Western readers) research results of the Moscow synergetic school which has its center at the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences are expounded in the book. Complicated and paradoxical concepts of synergetics (structure-attractors, bifurcations, blow-up regimes, non-stationary dissipative structures of self-organization, fractals, non-linearity) are translated into an intelligible language and vividly illustrated by materials and examples from various fields of knowledge, starting with the laser thermonuclear fusion and concluding with mysterious phenomena of human psychology and creativity. The style of writing is close to that of popular-science literature. That's why the book might be of interest and is quite comprehensible for students and specialists in the humanities. It is shown that the development of synergetics entails deep changes in the conceptual net through which we comprehend the world. It means a radical shift of paradigm, a conceptual transition from being to becoming, from stability to sustainability, from images of order to chaos generating new ordered evolving structures, from self-maintaining systems to fast evolution through a nonlinear positive feedback, from evolution to co-evolution, reciprocal evolution of different complex systems. The new synergetic way of thinking is evolutionary, nonlinear and holistic. This is a modern stage of development within the traditions of cybernetics and system-structural analysis. However, many elements of the latter have undergone important changes since their appearance.
Some methodological foundations for elaboration of the modern strategies of ecological thinking based on the theoretical biology and on the theory of complex adaptive systems статье are under review in the article. Ecology, being a science of interaction of living organisms and their communities with environment, goes far beyond its primary frames of the biological knowledge and becomes a nodal discipline from which vectors of perspective interdisciplinary synthesis of knowledge diverge. The ecological approach turns to be fruitful in social and humanitarian researches. Ecology of action, ecology of mind, ecology of life, of cognition and of creativity, ecology of thoughts and words, ecology of ideas, ecology of communication and ecology of management – all these conceptual attitudes give evidence of audacious integration of the ecological thinking in wide spheres of the humanitarian and social knowledge, where it gives opportunities for some fresh approaches. The concept of Umwelt coined by Jakob von Uexküll in 1909 and his study of Umwelt (Umweltslehre) are of great significance for the development of the modern ecological universalism and for elaboration of strategic imperatives of the ecological thinking. The concept of Umwelt as a specific environment to which any biological species or its separate individual is adapted and which is constructed by it allows us to elaborate a real interdisciplinary platform for development of the theory of ecology, for holding a reasonable position in discussions about sustainable development and sustainable futures as well as about the role of education for sustainable development of the world.
Some texts written by me together with corresponding member of the Russian Academy of science Sergei P. Kurdyumov (1928-2004) and under his direct ideological influence are collected in the book. These texts are elaborated, systematized, brought together in the book and supplemented with new materials. Sergei P. Kurdyumov were possessed of a deep metaphysical flair and put forward ideas, the matter of which are not fully clear up to now. These are, first of all, the idea of co-evolution and the notion of complex structures developing at different tempos as co-existing tempo-worlds. Owing to developments in the field of nonlinear dynamics and of synergetics, the classical problem of time and the problems of evolutionary holism disclose some new and non-traditional aspects. The matter of new notions of nonlinearity of the course of time in the processes of evolution and coevolution and of nonlinear links between different modi of time – between the past, the present and the future - come to the light in the book. Analyses of four interconnected aspects of the course of processes in open and nonlinear dissipative systems – of evolutionarity, temporality, emergent nature and holism – are carried out. A whole series of paradoxical notions, such as “the influence of the future upon the present”, “the possibility of touch of a remote future in praesenti”, irreversibility and elements of reversibility of the course of time appear in synergetics, non-traditional and nonlinear notion of time being at the heart of all of them. It is shown that the best pictorial view of the nonlinear time is apparently the tree of evolution or the tree of time that represent one of archetypes in the human psyche. This image is widely used in myths and religious doctrines of the world nations (the tree of evolution of languages from some united parent language or the tree of evolution of biological species), the image is often drawn by children, appears in consciousness of a man in his sleep, etc. The synergetics methodology under development is applied to study of cognitive systems. The emergent structures of evolution and of self-organization of the individual consciousness, their spatiotemporal peculiarities, and the complexity of the human Self are considered in detail. The radical changes in the understanding of the problems of time that occur due to synergetics are compared with images of time and with the notions of connection between the past, the present and the future in the history of philosophy and of culture. The obtained methodological inferences are of great importance for a reform of systems of education, for forecasting (for building of scenarios of future development), for effective management activity in the modern globalizing world, for elaboration of methods of stimulation of the creative thinking, for the growth of personality and its adequate building into the social media.
Resource-driven automata (RDA) are finite automata, sitting in the nodes of a finite system net and asynchronously consuming/producing shared resources through input/output system ports (arcs of the system net). RDAs themselves may be resources for each other, thus allowing the highly flexible structure of the model. It was proved earlier, that RDA-nets are expressively equivalent to Petri nets. In this paper the new formalism of cellular RDAs is introduced. Cellular RDAs are RDA-nets with an infinite regularly structured system net. We build a hierarchy of cellular RDA classes on the basis of restrictions on the underlying grid. The expressive power of several major classes of 1-dimensional grids is studied.
The paper discusses a multi-paradigm approach to the modeling of Demand Responsive Transport systems. It contains a brief overview of issues which appear during modeling of such systems, considers various multi-agent architectures and describes some algorithms which can be used for modeling. Also the paper provides some details about previous investigations on this topic, in particular: a centralized model based on combinatorial auctions and a multi-agent based multi-layer distributed hybrid model. The aim of the paper is working out a sound solution based on a combination of these two approaches which would utilize “system of systems” engineering approach where layered architecture would help to deal with real-time issues and increase system’s reliability and combinatorial auctions would help with global search of the optimal solution. Such combination improves the efficiency and reliability of the system.
There have been implemented engineering and development of multi-agent recommender system «EZSurf» that performs analysis of interests and provides recommendations for the social network «VKontakte» users based on the data from profile of particular user. During the work process different methods and technological solutions have been analyzed with examination of their advantages and disadvantages. Besides of that the comparative analysis of analogous products has been held where the most similar is Russian start-up service - Surfingbird. Based on this analysis the decision of recommender system implementation and integration has been accepted. The feature of this system is that it uses social network “VKontakte” profile for user’s data collection and API of third-party services (LastFM, TheMovieDB) for an extraction of information about similar objects. Such an approach contributes into optimization of recommender system, because it does not require creation of its own object classification system and objects database. The functionality of multi-agent system was separated between three agents. First agent (Collector) collects user data from “VKontakte” profile using VK API. Second agent (Analyzer) collects similar objects from databases of thitd-party services (LastFM, TheMovieDB) that will be the criteria for further search of recommendatory content. For search and selection of information an agent (Recommender) that works as web-crawler has been implemented. System «EZSurf» can be exploited by the users of social network “VKontakte” in everyday life for time economy on web-surfing process. At the same time they will get recommendations on content that are filtered depending on preferences of every particular user.
Main concepts and models of the modern theory of self-organization of complex systems, called also synergetics, are generalized and formulated in the book as principles of a synergetic world view. They are under discussion in the context of philosophical studies of holism, teleology, evolutionism as well as of gestalt-psychology; they are compared with some images from the history of human culture. The original and unfamiliar (to the Western readers) research results of the Moscow synergetic school which has its center at the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences are expounded in the book. The heuristic value of the synergetic models of evolution and self-organization of complex systems in epistemology and cognitive psychology, education and teaching, futures studies, social management activities and systems of global security is shown in the book. The book is addressed to a wide circle of readers: students, teachers, scientists who are specialized in different fields of natural sciences and the humanities as well as to all readers who strive for using recent results of science for reflections and achieving success in their own life.