Economic Update - Hungary, Romania: Growth to Moderate in 2015
M. : Sberbank CIB, 2014.
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S.
Under the general editorship: Gavrilenkov E.
Economic growth. The Hungarian economy continued to perform well in 2Q14, GDP growing 3.9% y-o-y, a bit better than in 1Q14 (3.7%) according to the second reading. However, due to base effects (the economy contracted y-o-y in 1Q13 and 2Q13 was the weakest quarter of 2013 at 0.5%), seasonally and calendar-adjusted Q-o-Q GDP growth decelerated from 1.1% in 1Q14 to 0.8% in 2Q14. Romania's GDP expanded 2.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (3.9% y-o-y in 1Q14 and 1.2% in 2Q14), which looks solid compared with the rest of the EU but not as strong as in neighboring Hungary. Next year, growth is set to moderate in both countries. Investment activity. Hungary's accelerating GDP growth was driven by increased government consumption and investment in production capacity (as well as growing exports), while in Romania, investment and construction contracted. Exchange rates. The Hungarian forint has depreciated moderately this year, a bit more against the dollar and less against the euro. The weaker currency has helped keep Hungarian exports competitive on European markets (around 75% of foreign trade turnover is with EU countries). The Romanian leu has strengthened against the euro, which could explain why the country's economic performance was a bit worse in 2Q14 than earlier in the year.
, , et al., Studies on Russian Economic Development 2016 Vol. 27 No. 5 P. 510-517
Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate. ...
Added: October 28, 2018
Циклически сбалансированные траектории в модели экономического роста с эндогенным переключением политики
, , Математическое моделирование 2018 Т. 30 № 4 С. 3-20
Balanced growth paths are typical research subjects for models of macroeconomic dynamics. Balanced growth paths are model solutions that assume constant policy parameters (such as tax rate) and allow for monotonous and proportional growth of model components. In this paper, we construct and test a model with policy switching based on economic retrospective voting: the ...
Added: December 31, 2017
, , / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2013. No. WP BRP 34/EC/2013.
We present a natural generalization of the Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition model (DSM) — we assume that there is a continuum of industries, each of them described as in DSM, and each characterized with its own elasticity of substitution. Although rms in all industries share the same level of productivity and costs, exogenous technological progress leads ...
Added: October 4, 2013
, , et al., M. : Sberbank CIB, 2014
Croatia. Output decreased by 0.5% y-o-y in 3Q14 and will probably decline by the same amount for the full-year 2014, making it the sixth consecutive year of decline. The country managed to improve its current account balance, mainly due to the export of services, but the large budget deficit and inefficient state-owned sector is ...
Added: May 28, 2015
, Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2015 № 1 С. 149-162
The 19th century saw an explosive growth of the gap between the “First” and the “Third” World as regards per capita incomes and levels of life that has become to be known as the “Great Divergence”. In the 20th century the Great Divergence continued up to the early 1970s, and then – in the late ...
Added: December 3, 2015
, , / Высшая школа экономики. Series PS "Political Science". 2014. No. WP BRP 16/PS/2014.
The main focus of this paper is the impact of efficiency losses, related to public capital stock, on the prospects of economic growth in democratic and autocratic political environments. We introduce a distinction between two types of efficiency loss: along with the loss of public capital during its accumulation, we take into account the process ...
Added: October 24, 2014
, / University of Groningen. Series GD "GGDC Research Memorandum". 2012. No. 123.
Russia is an important part of the world economy both now and in the past. Indeed, one would expect an abundance of studies on Russian economic development. In the past, growth and performance in planned economies vis-à-vis the Western world did attract much attention. These types of studies contributed to two revolutions of development thinking, ...
Added: November 15, 2012
, , , / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. 109/EC/2015.
This paper deals with a model of economic growth, which we expand to include endogenous policy switching based on retrospective voting. It is shown that under certain conditions the solution has a special form that we call a cyclically balanced growth path. This type of solution is an analogue to balanced growth paths, which often ...
Added: November 18, 2015
, , International Journal of Process Management and Benchmarking, Великобритания (Scopus) 2014 Vol. 4 No. 4 P. 475-492
We consider the dependence of the growth arte on the elasticity of substitution within the framework of a model with the agents' mutual dependence. This model is interpreted as a network structure. the development is explined as the agents' valus increase in a dynamic system described by functions which display constant elasticity of substitution (CES). ...
Added: November 16, 2014
, , et al., M. : Sberbank CIB, 2015
Economic growth in Poland and Latvia continued during 1Q15. Growth in Poland even managed to accelerate, but it was more subdued in Latvia, as the country is more exposed to financial turbulence in the CIS. Economic growth in these countries looked different due to various positive and negative external shocks as well as differences in ...
Added: August 13, 2015
Specification of a stochastic production function model in the extended class of stochastic frontier models
, , , Modeling of Artificial Intelligence 2017 Т. 4 № 1 С. 21-28
Copulas are being successfully applied for derivation of estimates in the models related to stochastic production functions. They can be used for handling of panel data, for the analysis of models with multiple outputs and for improvement of estimates in classical models. The research proposes an algorithm for specification of extended class of models for ...
Added: January 23, 2018
, , et al., М. : ИСЭПН РАН, 2009
Added: April 16, 2013
Copula-Application To Modelling Russian Banking System Capital Adequacy According to Basel II IRB-Approach
, , Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
, , Инвестиции в России 2018 № 2 С. 3-8
В настоящей статье авторами приводится комплексный анализ делового климата, сложившегося в строительных организациях России по итогам 2017 года. ...
Added: February 15, 2018
, Вопросы статистики 2017 № 4 С. 22-37
Information and communication technology has reached a level of development that official sites of statistical offices and information resources stored on them has become the major channel for the distribution of statistical data. Therefore issues related to dissemination of statistical information should now be discussed in the context of internet-based databases, i.e. information and ...
Added: April 25, 2017
, , , Dordrecht, L., Heidelberg, NY : Springer, 2011
The main aim of the book is, naturally, to give students the fundamental notions and instruments in linear algebra. Linearity is the main assumption used in all fieldsof science. It gives a first approximation to any problem under study and is widely used in economics and other social sciences. One may wonder why we decided ...
Added: September 11, 2011
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP7 "Математические методы анализа решений в экономике, бизнесе и политике". 2009. No. 02.
This paper reviews methods of comparing income tax progression. Section II deals with local measures of tax progression, Section III with global measures of tax progression, and Section IV with uniform tax progression. It is shown that all of this measures have specific drawbacks: they either ignore the income distribution altogether, aggregate over income цintervals ...
Added: March 23, 2013
Критика статистического разума: Основания частотного статистического анализа данных и современные рассуждения о причинности в социальных науках
, Социология: методология, методы, математическое моделирование 2021
В свете текущих дебатов о кризисе воспроизводимости в социальных науках, данная статья обращается к основаниям современной частотной статистики в аспекте установления причинных выводов. Чтобы понять как и для чего статистический анализ данных был введён в научную практику, после краткого введения в сегодняшний этап дискуссии о кризисе воспроизводимости, было описано понимание назначения частотного статистического анализа данных ...
Added: May 1, 2020
, Народонаселение 2015 № 2
В статье рссматриваются основные концептуальные подходы к определению понятия "социальная эксклюзия", а также наиболее известные современные подходы к ее количественной оценке. ...
Added: March 20, 2015
Совершенствование преподавания дисциплин математического цикла на основе инвариантов, необходимых для преподавания курса «Эконометрика» экономистам-бакалаврам
, , Вестник Нижегородского университета им. Н.И. Лобачевского. Серия: Социальные науки 2019 Т. 55 № 3 С. 183-189
The article describes a method that allows to improve the content of disciplines of the mathematical cycle by dividing them into invariant (general) and variable parts. The invariants were identified for such disciplines as «Linear algebra», «Mathematical analysis», «Probability theory and mathematical statistics» delivered to Bachelors program students of economics at several universities. Based on ...
Added: January 28, 2020
Сходства и отличия процесса расширения ЕС и переходного процесса: Роль Общеевропейского законодательства (Acquis Communautaire) в институциональном развитии стран с переходной экономикой
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2005. No. 01.
Institutional development tends to converge to several equilibriums differentiating by the level of development. Institutions external to a country, can help this country to find a “right” equilibrium. CEECs countries on average have institutional performance and economic development below the EU15 average. By choosing the Acquis Communautaire as external anchor CEECs may further improve their ...
Added: April 1, 2013
, Дискретный анализ и исследование операций 2010 Т. 17 № 3 С. 61-83
В настоящей работе продолжены исследования модели экономики с эндогенным инвестированием применительно к ситуации, когда инвестиционный процесс неограничен во времени, а инвесторы (они же потребители) образуют сменяющие друг друга перекрывающиеся поколения. В отличие от рассматривавшихся ранее в серии работ случаев, здесь пространство товаров бесконечномерно, хотя каждому поколению в отдельности доступен лишь ограниченный ассортимент товаров. Доказано существование ...
Added: April 23, 2013
P. : ACPI, 2017
Added: September 27, 2017
Tampere : EuroMot, Center for Innovation and Technology Research (CITER), 2011
Added: February 21, 2013