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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 48
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Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 2. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Economic growth in Azerbaijan softened to 1.1% in 2015 from 2.8% in 2014. GDP will likely contract in 2016, as domestic demand is set to be negatively affected by the manat devaluation and fiscal consolidation.

Added: Aug 12, 2016
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

In all three countries, inflation will remain at a low level both this year and in 2015. The disinflation environment, however, may exacerbate problems in the fiscal sphere, especially on the back of sluggish economic performance. This will be important for Croatia and Serbia, where budget expenditures (and hence deficits) will increase this year. Slovenia, on the other hand, is demonstrating stronger fiscal discipline.

Added: Aug 29, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. April 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Economic instability and currency depreciation in the CIS have spread to other countries, with Georgia becoming the most recent victim. Bulgaria has been less affected by the crisis, but it is constrained by monetary policy.
Added: Aug 13, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.
Croatia. Output decreased by 0.5% y-o-y in 3Q14 and will probably decline by the same amount for the full-year 2014, making it the sixth consecutive year of decline. The country managed to improve its current account balance, mainly due to the export of services, but the large budget deficit and inefficient state-owned sector is still a problem. We expect the burden of the adjustment to fall on the new government that will be appointed after the parliamentary elections at end 2015 or beginning of 2016. Serbia. GDP contracted by 3.6% y-o-y in 3Q14 and will likely be down 2.0% in 2014 as a whole. The Serbian economy was heavily affected by floods and slowing demand from its major trade partners in the EU. The country remains a twin-deficit economy: the budget deficit could get close to 7.8% of GDP this year, while the current account deficit may stay around 6.3% of GDP. The dinar weakened as a result. Fiscal consolidation is a necessary condition in the EU accession process, but its implementation will probably entail another year of economic decline in 2015. It also means the currency will probably continue to weaken further next year. Slovenia. The economic situation started to improve at end 2013 and remained positive during 2014, as GDP rose 3.2% y-o-y in 3Q14. Slovenia enjoys a current account surplus, due to its large manufacturing base, although its fiscal position was negatively affected by the banking crisis. We expect economic growth to continue in 2015, although the large amount of NPLs in the corporate sector is still a threat to stability.
Added: May 28, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

> Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.

Added: Aug 29, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. February 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.

Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS.

Added: Aug 13, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. May 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
The Serbian and Croatian economies contracted in 2014, GDP declining a respective 1.8% and 0.4%. Both countries are running a significant budget deficit and have an elevated level of public debt. Serbia has begun painful fiscal consolidation with the help of the IMF, while Croatia has been trying to muddle through, but it has taken its economy close to stagnation as a result.
Added: Aug 13, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Sberbank CIB, 2013.

There is a growing consensus that the major European economies will continue to stage a recovery in 2014, which will help smaller countries bounce back. The Bulgarian government has approved a budget for 2014 that envisages GDP growth of 1.8%. This number is above the 0.5% y-o-y reported for 9m13 and 0.8% seen in 3Q13, but is still relatively unimpressive for a country with relatively low GDP per capita (around $7,000 in 2012). Moreover, achieving this level of growth is not a foregone conclusion, as it will depend on the economic situation in Germany and Bulgaria's other major trade partners, particularly as the government expects growth to be driven by exports and improvements in the tourism sector

Added: Aug 28, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Despite the seemingly improving economic situation in Germany, a major trade partner of East European countries, economic trends in Slovenia, Hungary, Romania and Croatia have not changed much in recent months apart from some signs of a slightly deeper contraction in Slovenia and a bit of a stronger performance in Hungary. The formerly strong links between Germany and these countries' growth rates are gradually becoming weaker, pointing to a sort of "decoupling" between the core and peripheral European countries amid slowly changing foreign trade flows. German exporters are no longer benefiting from credit expansion in Eastern Europe and are increasing trade with faster-growing Asian economies, while growing trade with non-EU countries helped ease economic difficulties and/or supported growth in some East European countries (which have been able to expand trade with non-EU countries). Domestic demand remains subdued in most countries.

Added: Aug 28, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

> Georgia. Georgia's $16 bln economy saw strong annual growth in 2010-12 of around 6-7%, but in 2013 growth slowed to 3.2%, which is still good but not enough for an economy with a GDP per capita of around $3,600. Indeed, over the year, Georgia - which depends heavily on capital inflows - failed to utilize its competitive advantage of lower unit labor costs than in other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. > Turkey. The Turkish economy performed well in 1H14 as industrial output rose 3.8% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y in 5m14). GDP climbed 4.3% y-o-y in 1Q14, and we estimate 2Q14 to show GDP growth just below 4.0%. We expect 3.7% for 2014 as a whole, which is a bit stronger than we expected early in the year. > Bulgaria. Similar to some other smaller economies in the region, Bulgaria benefited from a recovery in the Eurozone that was characterized by ECB President Mario Draghi on August 7 as "moderate and uneven." Bulgarian GDP picked up to around 1.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (1.2% in 1Q14 and 1.6% in 2Q14). Given that Bulgaria's currency is pegged to the euro, the country was unable to extract benefits from this recovery to the same extent as some other countries, such as Turkey, Hungary or Romania, whose monetary policy and exchange rates are more independent. In 2H14, Bulgaria will face additional pressure from potentially slower growth in the EU as policy makers in the West and Russia continue experiments with sanctions.

Added: Aug 29, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.
Economic growth. The Hungarian economy continued to perform well in 2Q14, GDP growing 3.9% y-o-y, a bit better than in 1Q14 (3.7%) according to the second reading. However, due to base effects (the economy contracted y-o-y in 1Q13 and 2Q13 was the weakest quarter of 2013 at 0.5%), seasonally and calendar-adjusted Q-o-Q GDP growth decelerated from 1.1% in 1Q14 to 0.8% in 2Q14. Romania's GDP expanded 2.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (3.9% y-o-y in 1Q14 and 1.2% in 2Q14), which looks solid compared with the rest of the EU but not as strong as in neighboring Hungary. Next year, growth is set to moderate in both countries. Investment activity. Hungary's accelerating GDP growth was driven by increased government consumption and investment in production capacity (as well as growing exports), while in Romania, investment and construction contracted. Exchange rates. The Hungarian forint has depreciated moderately this year, a bit more against the dollar and less against the euro. The weaker currency has helped keep Hungarian exports competitive on European markets (around 75% of foreign trade turnover is with EU countries). The Romanian leu has strengthened against the euro, which could explain why the country's economic performance was a bit worse in 2Q14 than earlier in the year.
Added: May 28, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

Hungary, Romania and Turkey, which previously had much in common (including huge external imbalances), now seem to be following different paths. Hungary was able to orchestrate a fast but painful transition to a positive current account (and thus stabilized its external debt/GDP ratio), Romania's current account deficit has decreased, although the balance remains negative, and Turkey is still struggling to finance its external deficit of over 7% of GDP.

Added: Aug 28, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Poland was one of the few Eastern bloc countries to avoid a recession during the transitional period following the collapse of communism, having returned to growth already in 1993. The country also posted 1.6% growth in 2009, after which GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% on average in 2010-2011. However, it decelerated last year to 1.9%, and this year the economy is expected to expand roughly 1.2%. Overall, we expect Polish GDP in real terms to end this year 2.5 times the size it was in 1992.

Added: Aug 29, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Poland was one of the few Eastern bloc countries to avoid a recession during the transitional period following the collapse of communism, having returned to growth already in 1993. The country also posted 1.6% growth in 2009, after which GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% on average in 2010-2011. However, it decelerated last year to 1.9%, and this year the economy is expected to expand roughly 1.2%. Overall, we expect Polish GDP in real terms to end this year 2.5 times the size it was in 1992.

Added: Aug 28, 2014
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. June 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Economic growth in Poland and Latvia continued during 1Q15. Growth in Poland even managed to accelerate, but it was more subdued in Latvia, as the country is more exposed to financial turbulence in the CIS. Economic growth in these countries looked different due to various positive and negative external shocks as well as differences in monetary policies and FX regimes, as Latvia has adopted the euro.
Added: Aug 13, 2015
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 5. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Both Georgia and Azerbaijan saw GDP growth decelerate in 2015 due to negative external factors. Azerbaijan's economy continued to contract in 1Q16, but Georgia showed some signs of recovery. As oil prices have stabilized above $40/bbl, pressure on the Azeri manat has eased. Pressure on the Georgian lari has also eased, and the currency has even strengthened, allowing the National Bank to cut the key policy rate.

Added: Aug 12, 2016
Book
Stroutchenevski A., Gavrilenkov E., Konygin S. Sberbank CIB, 2016.

The economies of Hungary and Romania continued to diverge in 1Q16, as we had expected. Hungarian GDP slowed to 0.9% y-o-y, while Romanian GDP advanced 4.3% y-o-y. Bulgarian GDP rose by 3.0% y-o-y, in line with previous quarters. All three countries were negatively affected by the decline in EU funding, due to the previous funding program having ended in 2015. The lower funding led to a decline in public investments. Household consumption, however, continued to recover and in fact became the major growth driver for all three

Added: Aug 11, 2016
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A, Konygin S. Iss. 3. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Economic growth in Hungary and Bulgaria will likely decelerate in 2016 due to a slowdown of public investment financed by EU funds. The Romanian economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow faster on the back of additional fiscal stimulus.

Added: Aug 12, 2016
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 1. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

We expect economic growth to remain strong in Poland and Latvia in 2016. Despite this robust growth, the new Polish government is likely to soften monetary and fiscal policies to further stimulate the economy, in our view. In 2015, the Latvian economy demonstrated strong resilience to external shocks.

Added: Aug 12, 2016
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 6. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

A decline in EU funding in 2016 has driven a contraction in infrastructure investment in both Poland and Latvia. As a result, GDP growth in both countries slowed in 1Q16. Household consumption, meanwhile, continues to advance, thanks to rising wages and lower unemployment. Economic growth is expected to accelerate again in 2017, however, due to a recovery in EU budget expenditures.

Added: Aug 12, 2016
Book
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 4. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Serbian and Croatian GDP growth picked up to 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, in 2015, while growth in Slovenia slowed slightly, to 2.9%. We expect Serbia and Croatia to remain on the upswing in 2016, while for Slovenia we see growth decelerating further due to a drop in EU funding. Household consumption should be the major driver for all three economies.

Added: Aug 12, 2016