Complex-Valued Modeling in Economics and Finance
The present study generalizes the results of scientific research in the field of economic and mathematic simulation using elements of the theory of functions of complex variables (TFCV), which was conducted since 2004 under the author’s scientific supervision. Since the new results significantly extend the instrumental basis of scientific research in economics and possess their own theoretical base and logic, this section of economic and mathematic simulation was called “complex economics”. The study provides the fundamentals of this new scientific direction in economics and demonstrates how to use this theoretical base to build new economic and mathematic models that appear to be more adequate than models of real variables.
Most economists are absolutely unfamiliar or slightly familiar with the theory of functions complex variables. This is why, in this study, we would state briefly some provisions of this theory to get the reader acquainted with TFCV, and then formulate sequentially the principles of the theory of complex economy, its axiomatic core, basic conceptual positions of the theory, methods and models of the complex economics. Where necessary, theoretical provisions are verified by examples from the real economic practice.
The study is targeted at scientific workers, post-graduate students and doctors using economic and mathematic simulations in their activity.
The books contains papers presented at the BPM Demo sessions 2013, co-located with 11th International Conference on Business Process Management 2013.
This volume contains a set of dedicated scientific contributions to the 11th International Conference on Perspectives in Business Informatics Research. The peer-reviewed and tentatively selected papers cover a broad scope of modern research in Business Informatics, and include new results in such domains as: Knowledge Management and Semantic Web, Business and information systems development, Business, people and systems interoperability and Business intelligence.
In 2012 the conference is hosted by National Research University Higher School of Economics (NRU HSE) in Nizhny Novgorod. Our university is Russia’s leader in the field of scientific research conducted at the junction of Management, Economics and Governance of IT. In particular, NRU HSE is the originator and the promoter of Business Informatics in Russia. Therefore NRU HSE pays particular attention to sustainable international cooperation and leverages scientific research in that area.
We strongly believe that materials presented will contribute to further advances in Business Informatics and will foster intensive scientific cooperation between researchers.
The evaluations of the forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the period July 2010 - June 2013 are presented. The forecasting of surface air temperature at 5 days and precipitation at 3 days are considered. Our complex statistical scheme uses the results of the best foreign global schemes, regional scheme COSMO-RU7. The joint statistical accounting of different kind of the systematic errors in the complex forecasting allows to exceed the quality of every original forecasting schemes. The complex forecasting scheme is operative, and its results are published on the website of the Hydrometeorological center of Russia everyday at 9 : 15 a.m. Moscow time. The website also provides forecasts of extremal temperatures, temperature dew-point and wind velocity about the earth surface.
To elevate forecasting precision of bankruptcy models the impact of macroeconomic factors on the company's operation has to be considered as well as financial indicators transformed and multidimensional logit analysis made. Besides, differences in the stages of bankruptcy process play an important role.
BPM 2013 was the 11th conference in a series that provides a prestigious forum for researchers and practitioners in the field of business process management (BPM). The conference was organized by Tsinghua University, China, and took place during August 26–30, 2013, in Beijing, China. Compared to previous editions of BPM, this year we noted a lower focus by authors on topics like process modeling, while we also observed a considerable growth of submissions regarding areas like process mining, conformance/compliance checking, and process model matching. The integrated consideration of processes and data remains popular, and novel viewpoints focus, among others, on data completeness in business processes, the modeling and runtime support of event streaming in business processes, and business process architectures.
Public and Municipal Services Register (PMSR) is a Master Data Management System which implements specific business rules for more than 15000 Russian public and municipal services. Through PMSR public services description and implementation is provided by all federal and regional authorities. PMSR serves as a back office system for federal one stop shop e-services portal www.gosuslugi.ru. Through e-services portal citizens can get direct access to completely described business logic of all public and municipal services provided in Russia. PMSR serves both as a basis for future e-government services maturity growth and as a tangible result of Administrative Reform in Russia (2004-2010).
The research reported in this paper aims at introducing principally new approach to the design of traceability applications for supply network by the means of semantically consistent and conceptually aligned abstractions of business-processes, data, and software architecture. To derive needed abstractions, proposed approach uses the general principles of enterprise ontology for meta-description of business objects and processes, conceptual modeling techniques for data representation in a universal format, and multi-agent solution adjusted with an ontological view on data model and business processes of organizations. The method for data modeling consistent with the business view on supply chain activities is introduced and exemplified. Agent-based approach to tracing data analysis and particular model of intellectual agents are presented.
Recognizing the challenges that a contemporary university faces, an inter-faculty group of researchers performed the analysis of organizational and management approach in one of Russia’s universities and modeled existing business processes. The university is a multi-campus organization and to manage it efficiently it is necessary to make transition from the traditional management model to a more flexible - network structure. This paper focuses on development of the Goal Tree and designing of AS-IS model. The researchers applied IBM Business Modeler which allows to execute modeling and simulation of business processes. The practical value of the proposed approach is that it enables the university management to improve performance and effectiveness.
In order to support management functions in dynamically changing corporate enterprises, adequate information systems need to be built, automating desirable adaptation of inter- and intra- organizational business processes. This paper therefore introduces a new approach to the design of multi-agent information systems meant for planning, discovering, monitoring deviations, and optimizing business processes. Expected qualitative breakthrough in the system’s capacity is based on the matching of its constructional and behavioral perspective with the ontological model of supported enterprise. Besides, conformity between organizational and information systems is supplemented by their conceptual alignment in the description of states and processes. The method of multi-agent framework construction and its application for traceability in supply chains are presented in this paper.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.