Постконфликтная фаза вооруженной интервенции

Сравнительная политика. 2023. Т. 14. № 4. С. 120–135.

Чернов Д. Н., Zinovyeva E. S., Аров С. А., Комарова Е. С.

With the growing number of civil conflicts there is an increase in the practice of armed intervention by third parties, which pursue the goals of protecting and promoting their national interests. The expanding practice of armed intervention and its significance for the contemporary international system has attracted considerable research interest. The emphasis in the empirical literature on interventions is often placed on the causes of armed intervention or its impact on the duration of conflict. This focus on these variables is understandable, as it allows us, on the one hand, to deepen our understanding of the reasons for states’ use of force and, on the other hand, provides an opportunity to examine the influence of external factors on conflict dynamics. At the same time, the continued presence of the interventionist forces after the official end of the conflict remains outside the focus of most researchers. Civil conflicts tend to reignite and may carry latent threats even after the official end of the conflict, ending in negotiations or complete victory for one of the parties. Third states intervening are mindful of the potential risks, leading to persistent intervention after the end of the conflict.

Keywords: урегулирование конфликтов, conflict resolution, armed intervention, civil conflicts, post-conflict intervention, вооруженные интервенции, гражданские конфликты, постконфликтное вмешательство