Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis

Comparative Sociology. 2024. Vol. 23. No. 1. P. 98–126.

Korotayev A., Andrew Zhdanov, Gleb Krivenko

This analysis finds that the impact of elections on risks of armed insurrections is not statistically significant, whereas unarmed uprisings/nonviolent revolutions are more likely to occur in the election year. It is also shown that the influence of elections on unarmed revolutionary destabilization had tended to grow with time. The election
year became a significant factor of nonviolent revolutionary destabilization only after the end of the Cold War, and the impact of elections on the probability of unarmed revolutions has become particularly strong in this century (when elections in the given year increase the probability of an unarmed uprising more than three times). At the
same time, holding elections primarily increases the risks of revolutionary destabilization in intermediate regimes (anocracies). But even among anocracies, open anocracies/ partial democracies stand out, as here elections increase the probability of unarmed uprisings in an especially dramatic way.

Keywords: protests, elections, revolutions, destabilization, armed insurrections, unarmed uprisings, regime types

Publication based on the results of: Global challenges to the development of the "Afrasian" macro-zone of instability in the context of Russia's national interests (2024)