Гармонический анализ при управлении запасами в логистике и цепях поставок

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. 2023. № 4. С. 223–246.

Elyashevich I.

The article is devoted to the study of the possibilities of using the harmonic analysis apparatus when planning the need for stocks of various categories. The issues of improving material planning (forecasting) are currently quite relevant applied tasks in business, and are also of interest in terms of developing the theory of logistics and supply chain management. Among the approaches to planning the need for inventory, a wide range of statistical theory methods are used in practice, among which two large groups can be distinguished, such as one-parameter time series analysis models for goods of stable and relatively stable demand, as well as correlation and regression models for chaotic consumption stocks. Most of the goods sold to end consumers have a seasonal component, which may not always be explicitly expressed in statistics. However, due to the periodic change of seasons, regular fluctuations in the values of consumption from the warehouse, around the average chronological or trend, may necessitate regular recalculation of the main parameters of inventory management models, such as maximum, insurance, threshold inventory levels, etc. In addition, sales statistics may contain fluctuations of a higher order if the stocks sold have life cycles of interest in goods on the market, which can also be attributed to periodic or quasi-periodic processes. One of the methods of formalizing such cyclic processes can be trigonometric approximation or harmonic analysis, when the values of a time series are represented as terms of a Fourier series (harmonics) having corresponding amplitudes and phases. The article compares the effectiveness (accuracy) of forecasts of inventory requirements made using harmonic analysis and traditional time series extrapolation methods.

Keywords: гармонический анализ, inventory, планирование потребности, harmonic analysis, Demand Planning, Trigonometric approximation, purchasing and inventory management, periodic sales fluctuations, тригонометрическая аппроксимация, управление закупками и запасами, периодические колебания продаж, товарно-материальные запасы