Проблемы измерения деловых циклов: развитие концептуальных конструкций и основных параметров наблюдения
Annotation Improvement of national information infrastructure in the country of forming market, when the most important question is optimization of macro economical policy in conditions of in accumulation of significant risks due to the potential slowdown of growth in the developed market economies, increasingly offers advanced features measurement of uneven economic development, monitoring cycles in its dynamics. This article presents a brief history of the development of the basic concepts and definitions of the factors related to the measurement cycles of economic processes, considers the key prerequisites for the inclusion of qualitative indicators of the business climate in the short-term monitoring of the cyclic development of the basic branches of the Russian economy. In future articles, the authors suggest elaborating on the information and analytical content of indicator approach in the cyclical monitoring of macroeconomic dynamics, based on the combined use of both traditional statistics, as well as the results of industrial conjectural monitoring
All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence on the world energy market and economy overall. The decline in employment and personal consumption has struck more on most vulnerable social classes but the decreased volume of demand can be also attributed to the wealth (catering, tourism and others). Once began, the recession develops by its own rules — a sharp fall in the world trade, fixed capital formation, growth of budget deficits, and particularly strong impact on developing countries most dependent on tourism and financial assistance.
Keywords: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, business cycle, social inequality, personal consumption, capital formation, finance.
JEL: A14, D11, F02, T32.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.