Управление портфелем инновационных проектов в условиях ограниченных информационных ресурсов методами нечеткой логики и имитационного моделирования

Научные исследования и разработки. Российский журнал управления проектами. 2021. Т. 10. № 4. С. 3–13.

Власова Е. А., Tsiteladze D.

Managing a portfolio of innovative projects is a complex task that requires special approaches and management methods. According to statistics, only 69% of innovative projects correspond to the strategic goals that the company initially set for itself. Innovative projects involve working in conditions of constant variability, inaccessibility of information and high risk. The aim of the work is to offer a tool for managing a portfolio of innovative projects using fuzzy logic and simulation methods to improve the efficiency of project managers and achieve the organization's strategic goals, and as a result, create a competitive advantage in the market. The research methodology is based on taking into account the theory of fuzzy logic and the theory of system dynamics to create a simulation model for Bass diffusion.
The article proposes a tool for managing a portfolio of innovative projects using fuzzy logic and simulation modeling, as well as recommendations for combining the proposed tool with modern PMIS and analytical systems that allow for pre-project and post-project analysis, which allows you to manage and control the implementation of portfolio tasks throughout the full cycle of its implementation.
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Keywords: управление портфелем проектов, инновационные проекты, нечеткая логика, simulation modeling, project portfolio management, system dynamics simulation modeling,, аналитическое и имитационное моделирование, Financing of innovative projects