Использование информации независимых рейтинговых агентств для анализа банковских рисков в интересах реализации базельских соглашений
We aim to discover the relationship between market discipline and banking system transparency using the cross-country data (1990-2003) with Nier index and index based on World Bank surveys' data. We show that measures aimed to increase transparency, not being accompanied with requirements related to information availability and/or interpretability, may be not efficient in reaching the goal of market discipline stimulation.
The methodology of econometric approach to off-site monitoring of the Russian banking system is suggested. It includes econometric models of the probability of bank default, based on historical data on Russian bank defaults; models of ratings assigned to banks by rating agencies or experts, models of banks’ interest rates, and models of banks’ cost efficiency. Models are tested on real data in order to estimate possibility their potential use as part of Early Warning System in banks supervision.
The aim of the article is to model dynamics of risks and assess the cyclical effect of Basel II in the Russian banking system.