Эконометрические модели упорядоченного выбора — пример оценок удовлетворенностью жизнью
Удовлетворенность жизнью, дискретная зависимая переменная, модели упорядоченного выбора
In the paper an econometric method of rating scales mapping is suggested. The method is based on the setting up ordered choice models for the ratings and mapping the correspondent latent variables («continuous ratings») with a monotone function. The method takes into account bank's financial indicators and other factors which rating agency's experts use in their work. The method is tested on the real data on Russian banks' ratings and their quarterly balance sheet data for the period 2006:1-2010:4.
This article conducts a study of multiplying the credit rating agencies efforts. These opportunities are practically important in connection with implementation of the IRB approach. The author considers Russian commercial banks as one of the main examples of using proposal methods, so in addition to literature overview the paper includes review of the Russian banking system and rating activities.
Firstly, the author discussed the rating scales mapping for comparison of rating estimations of different agencies. Then, he proposed the distance method with the connected extremum problem to find compatible mapping functions for rating scale correspondence.
Secondly, the paper considered the possibility of rating model system creation for financial institutions. The bank rating models in order logit interpretation are discussed simultaneously for resident (Russian) and non-resident institutions. In addition, the specification of bank models’ characteristics and their quality were considered for the three largest international rating agencies also as econometrical models for corporates and sovereign were presented.
The results reviewed can help to apply basic instruments for practical applications of such models to the risk management problems, which are based on the public information and remote estimation of ratings. Commercial banks and government financial regulators may be perspective consumers of the proposed methods.
The article examines differences between two Russian regions – Moscow and Bashkortostan – through the following socio-psychological indicators: perceived social capital, trust, civil identity, life satisfaction, and economic attitudes.
This article evaluates the peculiarities of current corporate ratings systems and addresses specific issues of the development of econometrical rating models for emerging market enterprises. Financial indicators, market-value appraisals, industrial as well as macroeconomic factors of different countries were used as explanatory variables. Ratings of the Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings agencies were considered and used for modelling. The predictive power of the econometrical models was examined. A comparison of the methodologies of the three leading agencies was discussed.
We examine the synergy of the credit rating agencies’ efforts. This question is important not only for regulators, but also for commercial banks if the implementation of the internal ratings and the advanced Basel Approach are discussed. We consider Russian commercial banks as a good example where proposal methods might be used. Firstly, a literature overview was supplemented with an analysis of the activities of rating agencies in Russia. Secondly, we discussed the methods and algorithms of the comparison of rating scales. The optimization task was formulated and the system of rating maps onto the basic scale was obtained. As a result we obtained the possibility of a comparison of different agencies’ ratings. We discussed not only the distance method, but also an econometric approach. The scheme of correspondence for Russian banks is presented and discussed. The third part of the paper presents the results of econometric modeling of the international agencies’ ratings, as well as the probability of default models for Russian banks. The models were obtained from previous papers by the author, but complex discussion and synergy of their systematic exploration were this paper’s achievement. We consider these problems using the example of financial institutions. We discuss the system of models and their implementation for practical applications towards risk management tasks, including those which are based on public information and a remote estimation of ratings. We expect the use of such a systemic approach to risk management in commercial banks as well as in regulatory borders.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.