Долгосрочное прогнозирование моды на основании социологической модели циклических изменений
The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.
The digitalization is seen as an irreversible destiny for the humankind, and distinguished scientists expect the future to be tightly connected and saturated with digital technologies (for instance, Lyotard 1998, Bell 1999, Lyon 2013 etc.). However, not much is known about critical shifts, which have oc- curred in social, cultural and economic domains, and the future perspectives of digitalization seem obscure.
The current article is aimed at describing the phenomenon of «digitalization» from socio- economic perspective and educing the main features of the digitalized society. The article includes two parts. Firstly, the historico-philosophical theory of French professor Pier Levy is considered in detail. P. Levy (1997, 1998) has set forward the theory of four anthropological spaces, which includes the «earth», «territory», «commerce» spaces and the modern «knowledge space».
The knowledge space we are living in is characterized by the mass usage of technological apps, the inclusion of humans in innovation networks, the rise in collective intelligence, the replacement of material relationship to the world by more epistemological one, the refusal of geographical references, and by the constant redefinitions of the human identity via adjusting to the changing and fragile envi- ronment, which is becoming more and more digitalized.
The second part of the article is devoted to the analysis of the impact of digitalization on the economic sphere. The latest book written by the economist Prof. Klaus Schwab «The Fourth Industrial Revolution» (2017) serves as a guide to the new digital economy. Klaus Schwab high- lights such characteristics of modern society, which in many respects goes in parallel with Levy`s theory, as interconnectedness, knowledge access, growing capabilities to storage and receipt information, constant transformation of the economic sector, global extension of the changes, the emergence of global society, and the collective future for all the people. Besides, Prof. Schwab highlights that in case of three industrial revolutions, which preceded the Fourth one (the 1st revolution of 1760th-1840th, the 2nd revolution of the late 19th-early 20th century, and the 3rd revolution of the 1960th-1990th), the main consequence of them was the growing mecha- nization of the work process but not the absolute automatization of it. That means that the Forth industrial revolution creates the base for the replacement of human employees by the digital apps in the sphere of physical work and even in some areas of knowledge economy, which creates risks for the future labor market and the future economy on the whole.
Clothing and fashion play significant role in the process of ageing, helping to put the bodily experience in the context of culture (Twigg 2000). It is especially important for young people as social subjects, becoming independent and not having sufficient experience and social competences. In this case, clothing is the space of social experiment in which youngsters socialize, explore, measure and learn to construct presentations of their bodies.This paper focuses on the meaning of fashion and clothing in everyday life of Russian working class youth mainstream without subcultural (or any specific cultural) background. Following results is based on 61 IDI with trade schools students of St. Petersburg. Conventionally, students of trade school are related to working class in Russia, whether representatives of middle or higher class associate themselves with higher education (Walker 2000, Zaslavskaya 1997, Belenkii 2005).
Career trajectories of fashion models have different outcomes and depend on every project (photoshoot, catwalk etc.) where they do participate. In this field, it is common practice that there are choices between salary and symbolic capital as recognition and new connections in the world of fashion and art which they can acquire after collaboration with brands or journals. From this, it follows that present affiliation influences their future career path, so they exchange among themselves their level of prestige. In this paper we use longitudinal data on cover photoshoots in fashion and lifestyle magazines from 1975 to 2016 to see, how journals and fashion models occupy positions in this field and how their prestige transforms at different time periods according to cultural and economic mechanisms.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.