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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Generalized trust and military attitudes in Russia: The role of national and global human identification

British Journal of Social Psychology. 2023. Vol. 62. No. 3. P. 1566–1579.
Gulevich O., Osin E. N.

Generalized trust is an optimistic view of human nature that influences people's attitudes and behaviour. Most studies
focus on the positive effects of generalized trust. However, there is evidence suggesting that generalized trust may be
associated with both positive and negative outcomes. In the present study, we focus on the ambivalent associations of
generalized trust with the Russians' attitudes towards the Russian invasion in Ukraine. We used cross-sectional design
in three online samples of Russian residents (N = 799, 745 and 742) collected in March, May and July 2022. The participants were anonymous volunteers who completed measures of generalized trust, national identity, global human identity and military attitudes. The study has shown that generalized trust was a positive predictor of both national identity and global human identity. National identity, however, predicted positive attitudes towards the invasion and the use of nuclear weapons, whereas global human identity was a negative predictor of those outcomes. Mediation analysis revealed that the indirect effects of generalized trust mediated by the two types of identification had an inverse direction. We interpret the results with reference to the differences in the content of national identity and global human identity.

Research target: Psychology Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Keywords: национальная идентичностьгенерализованное довериеnational identity generalized trustаттитюды к войнеглобальная идентичностьglobal human identitymilitary attitudes
Publication based on the results of:
Psychological, social and communicative factors of political behavior (2023)
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