Система ключевых индикаторов рисков изменения капитальных затрат инвестиционно-строительного проекта

Вестник Московского государственного строительного университета. 2021. Т. 16. № 2. С. 220–241.

Власов Д. А., Gabrielov A.

Introduction. Mitigation of risks concerning the project budget overrun becomes one of the key problematic areas of Russian companies in case of increasing competition on both the domestic and foreign markets, significant expansion of the investment program, including the large strategic investment projects, and lack and expensiveness of financial sources. The research is aimed at defining the approach that allows to develop the key risk indicators (KRI) system to decrease costs overruns of construction projects.

Materials and methods. Conducted the analysis of approaches, tools and methods used for development the KRI system, provided the classification of project risks performed using the Ishikawa diagram, proposed the methodical approach consisting of tools and methods of risk theory (risk, KRI identification and assessment) and correlation regression analysis.

Results. Authors presented core steps of the KRI system development, proposed the methodical approach to development the KRI system differentiated by significance of the project.

Conclusions. For more significant projects of the investment program the authors propose to develop KRI system considering the peculiarities of them and for the other projects it is suggested to use the basic set of tools and methods that require minimal human and time resources. Along with the development of the methodical approach authors provide a sample of KRI structured by risk factors.

Keywords: капитальные затраты, ключевые индикаторы риска, инвестиционно-строительный проект