Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Journal of Globalization Studies. 2020. Vol. 11. No. 1. P. 33–63.

Korotayev A., Bilyuga S., Shishkina A.

It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kon- dratieff dynamics was generated primarily by the most economically developed countries of the First World. We re-visit the question of the presence of the Kon- dratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics. We find that, though in the post 1960 series they are quite visible at the global level, they are hardly visible in the GDP growth rates of the economically developed countries where the Kondratieff wave component (still detectable with special techniques) is almost entirely overwhelmed by the secular trend towards the decline of the GDP growth rates. After analyzing how much this trend is connected with the decline of the population growth rates and the decline of the share of investments in GDP, we move to the analysis of the Kondratieff waves in the GDP growth rates of the developing countries where they turn out to be much more pronounced and visible, which allows us to conclude that in the present the K-waves are generated by the Third World. We also show that in the developing countries a pronounced Kondratieff wave dynamics is accompanied by an overall upward trend (that stands in a sharp contrast with the pronounced downward trend observed in the developed economies). Finally, we analyze Kon- dratieff waves in the efficiency of investments as well as demographic characteris- tics of the developing countries, which allows us to forecast that the GDP growth rates in the developing countries are likely to also step on the downward secular trend starting with the sixth Kondratieff wave.

Keywords: ВВП, развивающиеся страны, экономический рост, economic growth, developing countries, developed countries, развитые страны, Kondratieff waves, GDP, Кондратьевские волны, глобальная динамика, global dynamics

Publication based on the results of: Factors of socio-political destabilization in the "Afrasian" zone of instability after the "Arab spring" (2020)