Сравнительный анализ методов прогнозирования банкротств российских строительных компаний
This paper is devoted to comparison of the capabilities of various methods to predict the bankruptcy of construction
industry companies on a one-year horizon. The authors considered the following algorithms: logit and probit models,
classification trees, random forests, artificial neural networks. Special attention was paid to the peculiarities of the
training machine learning models, the impact of data imbalance on the predictive ability of models, analysis of ways to
deal with these imbalances and analysis of the influence of non-financial factors on the predictive ability of models. In
their study, the authors used non-financial and financial indicators calculated on the basis of public financial statements
of the construction companies for the period from 2011 to 2017. The authors concluded that the models considered
show acceptable quality for use in forecasting bankruptcy problems. The Gini or AUC coefficient (area under the ROC
curve) was used as the quality markers of the model. It was revealed that neural networks outperform other methods in
predictive power, while logistic regression models in combination with discretization follow them closely. It was found
that the effective way to deal with the imbalance data depends on the type of model used. However, no significant
impact on the imbalance in the training set predictive ability of the model was identified. The significant impact of nonfinancial
indicators on the likelihood of bankruptcy was not confirmed.
The paper makes a brief introduction into multiple classifier systems and describes a particular algorithm which improves classification accuracy by making a recommendation of an algorithm to an object. This recommendation is done under a hypothesis that a classifier is likely to predict the label of the object correctly if it has correctly classified its neighbors. The process of assigning a classifier to each object involves here the apparatus of Formal Concept Analysis. We explain the principle of the algorithm on a toy example and describe experiments with real-world datasets.
The paper deals with the problems of creating and tuning a system of automated anaphora resolution for Russian. Such a system is introduced, combining rule-based and machine learning approaches. It shows F-measure from 0.51 to 0.59. Freeling serves as an underlying morphological layer and an account of its quality is given, with its influence on anaphora resolution workflow. The anaphora resolution system itself is available to download and use, coming with online demo.
The volume contains the abstracts of the 12th International Conference "Intelligent Data Processing: Theory and Applications". The conference is organized by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Federal Research Center "Informatics and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Scientific and Coordination Center "Digital Methods of Data Mining". The conference has being held biennially since 1989. It is one of the most recognizable scientific forums on data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, image analysis, signal processing, and discrete analysis. The Organizing Committee of IDP-2018 is grateful to Forecsys Co. and CFRS Co. for providing assistance in the conference preparation and execution. The conference is funded by RFBR, grant 18-07-20075. The conference website http://mmro.ru/en/.
Problems: 1) complexities of an estimation of legitimacy of actions of heads of the credit organization («Risk business»); 2) high degree blanket norms of criminal law; 3) absence of an accurate regulation of the civil-law mechanisms directed on protection of interests of creditors of the credit organizations, and, as consequence, 4) impossibility of an establishment of special norms it is criminally-legal protection right creditors of the credit organizations, in view of accecorn the nature criminally-rules of law.
Data management and analysis is one of the fastest growing and most challenging areas of research and development in both academia and industry. Numerous types of applications and services have been studied and re-examined in this field resulting in this edited volume which includes chapters on effective approaches for dealing with the inherent complexity within data management and analysis. This edited volume contains practical case studies, and will appeal to students, researchers and professionals working in data management and analysis in the business, education, healthcare, and bioinformatics areas.
In an effort to make reading more accessible, an automated readability formula can help students to retrieve appropriate material for their language level. This study attempts to discover and analyze a set of possible features that can be used for single-sentence readability prediction in Russian. We test the influence of syntactic features on predictability of structural complexity. The readability of sentences from SynTagRus corpus was marked up manually and used for evaluation.
This paper is an overview of the current issues and tendencies in Computational linguistics. The overview is based on the materials of the conference on computational linguistics COLING’2012. The modern approaches to the traditional NLP domains such as pos-tagging, syntactic parsing, machine translation are discussed. The highlights of automated information extraction, such as fact extraction, opinion mining are also in focus. The main tendency of modern technologies in Computational linguistics is to accumulate the higher level of linguistic analysis (discourse analysis, cognitive modeling) in the models and to combine machine learning technologies with the algorithmic methods on the basis of deep expert linguistic knowledge.
We present a universal method for algorithmic trading in Stock Market which performs asymptotically at least as well as any stationary trading strategy that computes the investment at each step using continuous function of the side information. In the process of the game, a trader makes decisions using predictions computed by a randomized well-calibrated algorithm. We use Dawid's notion of calibration with more general checking rules and some modication of Kakade and Foster's randomized rounding algorithm for computing the well-calibrated forecasts. The method of randomized calibration is combined with Vovk's method of defensive forecasting in RKHS. Unlike in statistical theory, no stochastic assumptions are made about the stock prices.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.