РОССИЯ – ЕС: ТОРГОВОЕ РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЕ КАК ОСНОВА ПЕРСПЕКТИВ ДВУСТОРОННЕГО СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА
Over the past three decades, the political climate and economic prosperity of the European continent largely have depended on the state of interaction between Russia and the EU. The legal basis for mutual trade and economic cooperation, laid down in the Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation, was subsequently supplemented. Russia's accession to the WTO has expanded the legal basis of bilateral relations. At the same time, the economic (financial crisis of 2008–2009) and political (confrontation in Georgia, Eastern Partnership, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU) have created problems and effectively anuled all previous achievements and the positive effects of the original agreements, calling into question the very possibility of bringing the partnership to a new level. The purpose of this article is to analyze the key barriers to the development of cooperation at the present stage, the role of the political factor, as well as the state of trade disputes and prospects for the development of cooperation.
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as real households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
Over the years of WTO work, the inconsistency of positions on individual issues between countries, as well as groups of countries, has often led to a deadlocks in the solution of certain trade and political problems. However, the joint search for mutually beneficial, compromise ways, the willingness of participants to Dialogue at the WTO platform demonstrated the viability of the multilataral trading system.
For the first time since World War II, the U.S. seem to lose leadership at the multilateral trade talks shifting accents to bilateral and regional trade cooperation. The main reason for the shift is a deadlock at the WTO Doha-round negotiations where the U.S. face opposition of the steadily growing economies of India, China and Brazil.
Торговые переговоры, ГАТТ, ВТО, США, многосторонняя торговая система, ЕС, Япония, ИНДИЯ, КИТАЙ, Бразилия, Дж. Буш-мл., Б. Обама, М. Баррозу, Р. Зеллик, П. Лами, Р. Кирк, Л. да Силва, Карел де Гюхт, АТЭС, НАФТА, АСЕАН, трансатлантическое партнерство, "двадцатка", trade talks, GATT, WTO, U.S., Multilateral Trading System, Eu, Japan, India, China, Brazil, G.-W. Bush, B. Obama, M. Barrozo, R. Zoellick, P. Lamy, R. Kirk, L. da Silva, Karel de Gucht, APEC, NAFTA, ASEAN, Transatlantic Partnership, G 20
Economic integration and the growing institutionalization of bilateral economic relations is partly the goal of Russia-EU cooperation. Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) facilitates achievement of this goal, because now Russia and the EU have to play by the same rules in bilateral trade. The working hypothesis in this paper is that despite a range of remaining problems Russia’s WTO accession is a positive development in Russia-EU trade and economic relations, because it provides a firm institutional basis for synergy of Russia-EU and Eurasian (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) economic integration.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.