Выявление характеризующих стадии жизненного цикла факторов
Understanding the organization's life-cycle theory (hereinafter OLC) should allow different stakeholders to study and analyze differences in resources, investment levels, production capacities, etc.
According to the concept of the life cycle, each stage of development is characterized by its organizational and financial characteristics, "crises", problems, tasks. Proceeding from this, it is advisable to consider the stages of the life cycle as a function that depends on a certain set of determinants.
The goal of this research is – to identify the factors on the basis of which it becomes possible to understand the company's movement through the stages of the life cycle, using the model of ordered choice.
Results. With the help of the results obtained, investors and other interested persons will be able to estimate the probability of finding an organization at a certain stage of development on the basis of publicly available information and take a more reasonable management decision, since there are significant differences in the characteristics of companies for each stage.
The chief aim of this paper is to analyse dynamics of linear and non-linear methods to predict bankruptcy for Russian private small and medium-sized retail and wholesale trade companies. We use financial and non-financial data prior and subsequent to the economic crisis of 2008—2009. We use the following methods: logistic regression and random forest.
This research will be of vital importance especially to banks and other credit organisations providing loans to small and medium businesses.
Our dataset comprises from 200,000 to 600,000 companies depending on specific year. We use data from the Ruslana database which covers the period from 2004 to 2012.
The definition of default is extended to financial difficulties by adding voluntary liquidated firms to those liquidated as a result of legal bankruptcy. We study active companies and two types of liquidated ones.
Heterogeneity of Russian companies is taken into account in several ways. In addition to financial ratios derived from financial statements we include non-financial variables such as regional distribution, age, size and legal form into statistical models.
Evaluation of the prediction performance is done with the help of out-of-sample forecasts. We obtain models with quite high predictive power, area under ROC curve reaches 0.75. Random forest outperformed logit-model. Adding non-financial information such as age and federal region leads to the improved forecasts while legal form and size do not have a great impact on the outcome. Among financial measures liquidity, profitability and leverage ratios turned out to be essential. Moreover, our models captured a structural change which was likely to be caused by the crisis of 2008—2009.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.