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Regular version of the site

Article

European Monetary Union Bond Market Dynamics: Pre & Post Crisis

Vukovic D., Maiti M., Lapshina K.

Despite the wide range of alternatives that have been proposed by
academics and practitioners, the Sharpe ratio remains one of the most popular metrics used to
evaluate investment performance. In the proposed research, risks and returns are analysed on
the European Monetary Union bonds market, with different bonds ratings and maturities,
during the period from 2005 to 2017. The past and current trends and patterns in bond returns
are defined using the methods of statistic, correlation and econometric analysis. It was shown
that the bond returns are not normally distributed, and that the return distribution depends on
bond maturity and the economic situation in the market. The relation between volatility and
bond maturity and the Sharpe ratio appeared to be non-linear and not consistent over time.
However, the hypothesis about the inverse relation between the Sharpe ratio and bond
maturity is not supported by the evidence. Finally, with the help of time-series models it was
proven that in the period 2005–2017, the returns on European Monetary Union bonds market
tend to decline over time. We used ARIMA models for analysis of the residuals from the
bond returns.