Глобальные вызовы в агропромышленном комплексе: стрессовые сценарии для России
Биотехнология. 2018. Т. 34. № 5. С. 7-11.
Loginova I., Kuzminov I., Khabirova E.
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming the agrarian and scientific-technical policy of the country by modeling stressful scenarios that can be realized in the domestic food sector as a result of triggering of certain drivers.
Priority areas: economics
, , , Stress Scenario Development: Global Challenges for the Russian Agricultural Sector / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 88.
This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in ...
Added: October 3, 2018
, , , Smart Energy 2021 Vol. 3 Article 100025
The global electric power industry is under pressure due to economic downturn, decreasing demand, lowering energy prices, and growing non-payments. National electric power industries face similar challenges. These challenges pose threats to many other sectors of economy due to ongoing digital transformation. The paper focuses on the Russian electric power industry future development trajectories, as ...
Added: June 7, 2021
, , et al., Нефтепереработка и нефтехимия. Научно-технические достижения и передовой опыт 2014 № 10 С. 17-20
The article describes an approach to long-term forecasting of energy sector development from the point of view of "Grand challenges". The key trends and challenges affecting the development of the Russian energy sector are considered with the purpose to increase the efficiency of sectoral strategic planning. ...
Added: November 28, 2014
, , , Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2013 Vol. 80 No. 3 P. 379-385
This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International ...
Added: February 7, 2013
, , Present and future of the production: integrating lean-management into corporate foresight / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016.
The present paper describes a combined approach to corporate foresight and lean management. When companies implement lean-management, they are often faced with a broad range of barriers such as top-management resistance, slow response to market change, etc. Inasmuch as in near future we will expect Industry 4.0, planning horizon gradually changes. To overcome the new ...
Added: October 18, 2016
, , , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 441-456
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as ...
Added: October 18, 2017
, , et al., М. : ЦАГИ, 2014
Документ подготовлен рабочей группой «Форсайт развития науки и технологий», созданной во исполнение Протокола No 1 от 28 июня 2011 года совещания в Министерстве промышленности и торговли Российской Федерации о разработке «Национального плана развития науки и технологий в авиастроении на период до 2025 года и дальнейшую перспективу». В рабочую группу вошли представители научных организаций ...
Added: October 2, 2013
, , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 198-217
Purpose The goal of this paper is to apply foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation major trends, most promising products and technologies. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this goal best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section ...
Added: February 25, 2017
, Транспортное дело России 2009 № 9 С. 98-99
In article the analysis of an overall performance of agriculture of Russia is carried out. The example of the innovative project of the complex unit for agriculture is resulted. ...
Added: March 4, 2013
, Foresight and STI Governance 2020 Vol. 14 No. 1 P. 6-27
The tobacco industry worldwide has annual revenues of hundreds of billions of dollars, and annual smoking-associated death rates in the millions. Electronic cigarettes designed as a less harmful alternative to traditional tobacco products allow users to inhale nicotine, without consuming the products of burning tobacco, thus significantly lowering health risks. These and similar innovative solutions ...
Added: June 16, 2020
Аграрная наука, управленческая практика и агробизнес в инновационном развитии АПК: Материалы Всероссийской научно-практической конференции, посвященной 65-летию кафедры отраслевой и территориальной экономики и 100-летию аграрного образования на Урале (Пермь, 20 марта 2018 года)
Пермь : ИПЦ "ПрокростЪ", 2018
В сборнике представлены материалы Всероссийской научно-практической конференции. Опубликованные статьи содержательно отражают тематику конференции и являются результатом исследований ученых, аспирантов, соискателей и работающих на производстве выпускников факультета экономики, финансов и коммерции Пермского ГАТУ. Наиболее масштабно представлены результаты изучения проблем теоретического обогащения экономических аспектов аграрной науки, управленческой практики в достижении продовольственной безопасности страны, инновационной и инвестиционной активности ...
Added: October 29, 2018
, Мир России: Социология, этнология 2013 Т. 22 № 1 С. 29-60
В статье рассматриваются проблемы сельского хозяйства в советский и постсоветский период и их возможные причины, вокруг которых сложилась обширная мифология; раскрываются аргументы «за» и «против» наиболее популярных мифов о сельском хозяйстве; выявляются тенденции и последствия современных процессов преобразования сельскохозяйственных предприятий, многоукладность российской экономики, формирование вертикальных структур агропромышленного комплекса; а также экономические и социальные последствия двух ...
Added: March 31, 2013
, , et al., The Role of Wild Cards Analysis in Foresight Studies: The Case of Russia / НИУ ВШЭ. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2018. No. 89/STI/2018 .
The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well ...
Added: October 25, 2018
, , , Russia’s Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2015. No. 42.
The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. ...
Added: July 24, 2015
, Russia's Water Resources 2030: Policy Recommendations / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 44.
The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The Foresight methods cover expert interviews ...
Added: August 31, 2015
, , География в школе 2008 № 7 С. 17-20
В статье проанализированы тенденции и современное состояние развития агропромышленного комплекса России. Статья содержит обширный фактический и статистический материал. ...
Added: March 4, 2013
, , et al., Форсайт 2014 Т. 8 № 2 С. 30-45
The shipbuilding sector’s multiple contributions to the social and economic development, as well as to science and technology, of major maritime countries mean that the sector attracts strong interest of entrepreneurs, researchers, and government agencies. Meanwhile the diverse forms of inter-industrial interaction, and specific aspects associated with building high-technology vessels require significant investments. Hence that is a significant challenge in a context ...
Added: July 2, 2014
Возможности использования методологии Форсайта для разработки стратегических прогнозов отраслевого развития
, , , Труды МАИ 2012 № 53 С. 1-16
Article touches upon with a set of national and foreign Foresight projects devoted to future development of aviation industry including S&T Foresight until 2025, launched by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University “Higher School of Economics” (ISSEK HSE). Special attention focuses on Roadmap “Use of nanotechnologies in aviation industry”. ...
Added: September 19, 2012
, , et al., Foresight and STI Governance 2014 Vol. 8 No. 2 P. 30-45
The shipbuilding sector’s multiple contributions to the social and economic development, as well as to science and technology, of major maritime countries mean that the sector attracts strong interest of entrepreneurs, researchers, and government agencies. Meanwhile the diverse forms of inter-industrial interaction, and specific aspects associated with building high-technology vessels require significant investments. Hence that ...
Added: October 10, 2014
, , Framing emerging nanotechnologies: steps towards a forward-looking analysis of skills / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2013. No. 15.
How can we think about the implications of radical technological change for employment and skills? Given the long lead-times required to train professionals, this is an important question, and standard approaches to modeling employment and occupational trends only provide limited parts of the answer. Innovation studies provide us with some further tools for tackling the ...
Added: July 24, 2013
, , et al., Development of Navigation Services and Devices – Evidence from a case study in Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2013. No. 22.
The paper assesses the development of the market for navigation services and devices based on the results of a recently held Foresight exercise on monitoring of global technology trends. The future of the market for Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) devices is largely influenced by grand challenges (i.e. lifestyle change, technical safety, urbanization, rural development, ...
Added: November 16, 2013
, , , Journal of Cleaner Production 2018 Vol. 170 P. 867-879
The grand challenge of accessing fresh water and sanitation is a global concern. The intensity of challenge depends on the geographical location as well as the level of socio-economic development of individual countries. The present paper first reviews the key water-related global trends and examines the global agenda on water issues. Next the focus is ...
Added: September 25, 2017
Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques
, , et al., Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 82.
This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, ...
Added: October 3, 2018
, , et al., Экономические стратегии 2018 № 3 С. 2-7
This article summarizes the results of the International Youth Forum “Future of Eurasian and European Integration: Foresight — 2040”, regarding the economic integration within the European, Eurasian and Asian space. The high interdependence of European and Eurasian markets especially, make strong social and political relations essential in achieving long run economic development, growth and stability in the ...
Added: May 28, 2018