A closed dynamic model to describe and calculate the Kondratiev long wave of economic development
A full closed mathematical model to describe and calculate Kondratiev’s long wave (LW) of economic development is presented for the first time. The innovative process that generates a new long wave in the economy is described as a stochastic Poisson process. The key role in constructing production functions during both the upward and downward trends of the LW is played by the self-similarity property of the innovative process, which is determined by its fractal structure. The role of the switch from an upward wave to a downward one is played by entrepreneurial profit; this article places primary emphasis on calculation of it. The practical effect of the model developed is illustrated through predictive calculations of GDP movement paths and the number of employees in the economy and the dynamics of fixed physical capital formation and growth of labor productivity by the example of the development of the US economy during the coming sixth Kondratiev LW (2018–2050).
This paper puts forth a comprehensive set of measures to address the current economic crisis, prevent its further aggravation and ensure sustained and ongoing development of the Russian economy. In this study we seek to adopt the viewpoint of common sense and keep free from political and ideological bias. This is why we believe the proposed solutions should be implemented by any reasonable government irrespective of its political coloration. This text presents our vision of the Russian economy and its problems.
The annual report prepared by a large group of Russian and French researchers. The report focuses on the trends of development of Russia in the sphere of economy, domestic and foreign policy, social and regional policy.
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
People are the focus of the third edition of the OECD Yearbook, which looks at some of the key challenges that have resulted from over five years of global economic turmoil. OECD experts are joined by leaders from government, business, labour, academia and civil society to examine pressing questions.
The paper considers the prospects of domestic pharmaceutical industry development and determines the requirements for strategic growth for the drug manufacturers. Particularly highlighted are the results of examining the present situation in the domestic pharmaceutical industry as well as the analysis of international experience. The author determines the main growth aims of the domestic pharmaceutical companies and suggests the measures aimed at their reaching.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.