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Article

Методика построения модели внешнеэкономической деятельности экономики России

A methodology is presented that allows to analyze and forecast dynamics of Russia’s foreign trade indicators published in balance of payments. Basing on the methodology, a model is constructed consisting of econometric and balance ratios. This model gives an opportunity to describe balance of payments variables with high accuracy. Model is adapted for midterm forecasting of monthly and quarterly data. With the help of the model discussed it is possible to simulate various economic scenarios and their influence on Russia’s economy.