Методика построения модели внешнеэкономической деятельности экономики России
A methodology is presented that allows to analyze and forecast dynamics of Russia’s foreign trade indicators published in balance of payments. Basing on the methodology, a model is constructed consisting of econometric and balance ratios. This model gives an opportunity to describe balance of payments variables with high accuracy. Model is adapted for midterm forecasting of monthly and quarterly data. With the help of the model discussed it is possible to simulate various economic scenarios and their influence on Russia’s economy.
The role of patriotism conception in the functioning of the Russian food-sector is analyzed in this article for example in grain, meat and juice markets. The subject of the study is measures by which the government carries out a policy of import substitution and increase the export potential of agribusiness. Based on data from expert interviews and official statistics, the author develops the idea that the field of interpretive possibilities, relying on that food producers are trying to enlist the help of the government as a resource for business development, is hiding behind the notion of patriotism.
In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu’s theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in the re-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic development of Japan before World War II, with a special emphasis on the development of the Japanese textile industry. Akamatsu’s catch-up development includes three phases: import of goods, organization of the production of previously imported products, and export of those goods. This model proved to be productive for analyzing the development of many other developing countries, especially in East Asia, making the theory of flying geese popular among the economists of these countries, as well as the whole world. The “flying geese” model produces certain swings that may be denoted as Akamatsu waves. Akamatsu waves may be defined as cycles (with a period ranging from 20 to 60 years) that are connected with convergence and divergence of core and periphery of the World System in a way that explains cyclical upward and downward swings (at global and national levels) in the movements of the periphery countries as they catch up with the richer ones.
The Chapter examines the evolution of the modern system of currency regulation in Russia. Special attention is paid to sustainability of the national currency, the causes and consequences of capital outflow, as well as measures of deoffshorization of the Russian economy.
The article describes measures taken by the customs service of Russia in the sphere of prevention of IPR infringements, protection of the right holders and steps taken in order to improve current legislation by ana-lyzing the best practice of certain customs bodies.
This article analyses patterns of technology transfer policy in connection with innovation development. It is argued that knowledge transfer plays the key role in efficiency of international technology acquiring. Statistical analysis is carried out based on data gathered from various international organisations including OECD and The WB.
The article is devoted to the analysis of trends in international trade development in Russia in the period following trade liberalization. Using statistical data analysis changes in scale and the structure of international trade since the first years of economic reforms in Russia are estimated.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.