Information-Analytical System for Forecasting Indicators of the Social and Economic Sphere of the Russian Federation
Currently, the need for the real-time evaluation of the functioning effectiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation is observed. To achieve this goal, the situation centers, able to perform the monitoring of the socio-economic indicators both at the federal and regional levels, are created in Russia. At the same time, it is necessary to implement the information-analytical system to make forecasts for the following periods, as well as to conduct a plan-fact analysis based on the available data, using various methods. In the framework of this study, the situation center of Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Plekhanov Russian University of Economics" (FSBEI HE "Plekhanov RUE") is considered. The development of the information-analytical system based on a hybrid forecasting model, integrated with the software of the center under consideration, is proposed by the authors. The examples of the calculations and the estimation of their accuracy and quality, obtained with the prototype of the system under development, are presented.
Focuses on methods and practical tools for creating information-analytical system for monitoring hazardous celestial bodies and planning to counter the NEO hazard. The structure of the system and a description of its functional components that allow automated mode to provide a rapid assessment of potential threats and forecast the consequences of a collision dangerous space objects with the Earth.
Purpose – This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system.
Design/methodology/approach – To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution.
Findings – Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning.
Originality/value – Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.
Econometric models of the dependence on various factors of the number of participants of the Unified State Examination, which have scored different points for certain subjects in 2012 and 2013, are considered. The analysis uses data on high and low scores for regions of Russia. Dependences of the number of good and bad Unified State Examination points on the number of students who took part in the exam in different regions are studied. It is shown that, the more the number of participants in the exam in each region, the greater the number of both good and bad ratings in the region. But, as a rule, the number of low grades in a discipline is a concave function, and the number of high grades is a convex function of the number of schoolchildren who took part in the exam.
The present paper is a continuation of theoretical and methodological issues concerning the construction of time series of indicators of the utilization of capital, labor, and material resources (or inverse indicators of resource intensity). The indicators were differentiated by the so-called “new” and “old” elements of the productive apparatus. The paper presents the approaches to practical implementation of the developed econometric methods and the results of construction of indicators of material resources use in physical terms for the reported balance sheets.
This paper presents the system of the recognition and segmentation of objects which is based on an effective method for semi-controlled instance-aware segmentation of video and images. The system allows to achieve high quality forecasting of segmentation annotations for video frames while processing in real time. For this purpose a neural network model was proposed in the form of a Siamese deep network with a structure “encoder-decoder” which is designed to take advantage of both propagation-based and detection-based methods while avoiding the weaknesses of both approaches. The network was trained in a two-stage training process that uses both synthetic and real data and works reliably without online training or post-processing. The quality of the trained model was tested on training video.
At the present time the problem of managing the cost of capital in conditions of external economic shocks is particularly relevant. This occurs because of implementation in 2014 by Bank of Russia new requirements for the structure and capital adequacy of Russian banks in accordance with the Basel 3 capital standards. In this paper we investigate the dependence between the total capital value of the Russian Federation banking sector and the main macroeconomic indicators. Also we assessed the extent and speed of their impact on capital, based on the vector autoregression model.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
The manual is intended for students of Department of computer engineering MIEM HSE. In the textbook based on the courses "Economics of firm" and "the development strategy of the organization." Discusses the key conceptual and methodological issues of the theory and practice of Economics and development planning of the organization. The use of textbooks will enable students: to analyze key performance indicators, and use the tools of strategic analysis with reference to concrete situations in contemporary Russian and international business. Special attention is paid to the methods and systems of information support of the life support functions of business organizations and management methodology of innovation and investment. An Appendix contains source data for analysis of competition in a particular industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Over the last two decades national policy makers drew special attention to the implementation of policy tools which foster international cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we look at cases of Russian-German collaboration to examine the initiatives of the Russian government aimed at stimulating the innovation activity of domestic corporations and small and medium enterprises. The data derived from the interviews with companies’ leaders show positive effects of bilateral innovative projects on the overall business performance alongside with major barriers hindering international cooperation. To overcome these barriers we provide specific suggestions relevant to the recently developed Russian Innovation Strategy 2020.