Экономический рост в России с учетом демографических изменений и вклада человеческого капитала
This article offers a new approach to growth accounting in Russia, identifying fundamental and cyclical components, including capacity utilisation and the employment level. A detailed decomposition of the labour contribution to growth is conducted to identify demographic effects. A modified index of human capital is developed that considers the impact on GDP of educational attainment (based on PISA scores) and changes in health (the fall in mortality among those of working age). This is used to refine the historical trend in total factor productivity. The article provides the results of a decomposition of the historical GDP trend in Russia in 2000-16, and of two long-term forecasts of economic growth, along with the contribution of the individual components. It is shown that under the inertia scenario the labour contribution to growth will be negative across the whole period to 2035. Given established trends in investment and total factor productivity, and moderate oil prices, the long-term growth rate in Russia will remain close to 1% a year. These negative demographic effects cannot be fully offset through a reform of the pension system. At the same time, it is shown that a rapid convergence with the level of human capital in developed countries would allow for a significant acceleration in the rate of economic growth.
It is for the first time when the phenomenon of the political class is being investigated in the Russian political science literature. In this edition, the political class is viewed as a community of persons professionally involved in the sphere of politics. Political elites, administrative and political bureaucracy, deputy corps, party functionaries, analyst center staff, expert community, political consultants, political journalists are regarded as important segments of the political class. The study of political participation of corporate business is also paid attention to. An important advantage is the combination of theoretical, methodological and applied aspects of the research, as well as a comparative perspective: the features of the formation of a political class in Ukraine and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe are considered.
The authors estimate contribution of different factors in reading skills of 15?year-olds by using four models of multilevel regression analysis. It turned out that the most significant factor is family background — not only at the individual level, but at the school level as well (average school socio-economic status of schoolchildren families effects average reading skills). At the school level the aggregated family characteristics of students affect individual achievements, and this effect surpasses an effect of school resources and localization of schools — those school factors that show a significant contribution to achievement. Attitudes toward reading and learning are significant at the individual level, but at the school level children’s attitudes toward reading and school don’t make an independent contribution to the individual results.
The current state of methods of the solution of boundary problems of mechanics of continuous environments is characterized. It is noted that packages of applied programs applied in engineering practice are based on the methods leading to solutions of boundary problems in the form of massifs of numbers. As a shortcoming the im-possibility of a reliable assessment of an error of such decisions for the majority of complex engineering chal-lenges is noted. As the alternative is stated an essence of a fictitious canonic regions method. It is shown that its application leads to solutions of boundary problems not in the form of massifs of numbers, but in the form of the functions which are identically satisfying with to the differential equations of boundary problems. The main ad-vantage of the fictitious canonic regions method - high precision of received results and possibility of a reliable assessment of their error. The review of stages of development of the fictitious canonic regions method is executed. The review of the works devoted to its application for the solution of scientific and engineering problems is executed.
The article describes the problem of convergence of technical and eco-nomic education through the use of marketing categories. The scheme of inter-action and interpenetration of scientific disciplines at the present stage of devel-opment of society is also presented in the article. The article examines the evolu-tionary forms of the fundamental categories of marketing – the rate of use-value, and the mechanism of convergence of technological and economic education in a bipolar economy.
The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is a worldwide study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in member and non-member nations of 15-year-old school pupils' scholastic performance on mathematics, science, and reading. It was first performed in 2000 and then repeated every three years. It is done with view to improving education policies and outcomes. The data has increasingly been used both to assess the impact of education quality on incomes and growth and for understanding what causes differences in achievement across nations.
In this paper we study convergence among Russian regions. We find that while there was no convergence in 1990s, the situation changed dramatically in 2000s. While interregional GDP per capita gaps still persist, the differentials in incomes and wages decreased substantially. We show that fiscal redistribution did not play a major role in convergence. We therefore try to understand the phenomenon of recent convergence using panel data on the interregional reallocation of capital and labor. We find that capital market in Russian regions is integrated in a sense that local investment does not depend on local savings. We also show that economic growth and financial development has substantially decreased the barriers to labor mobility. We find that in 1990s many poor Russian regions were in a poverty trap: potential workers wanted to leave those regions but could not afford to finance the move. In 2000s (especially in late 2000s), these barriers were no longer binding. Overall economic development allowed even poorest Russian regions to grow out of the poverty traps. This resulted in convergence in Russian labor market; the interregional gaps in incomes, wages and unemployment rates are now below those in Europe. The results imply that economic growth and development of financial and real estate markets eventually result in interregional convergence.
The historical changes in Central and Eastern Europe demanded suitable paths for the transition from centrally planned to market based economies. The lack of relevant experience added to the challenge, giving rise to the incalculable risks of implementing untested policies. By focusing on monetary policy, trade, and convergence, this volume addresses some of the most urgent economic policy issues in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.
The article reveals the problem of convergence of direct and inverse problems in Earth Sciences, describes the features and application of these problems, discloses analytical features of direct and inverse problems. The convergence criteria and conditions for convergence were presented. This work is supported by the Grant of the Government of the Russian Federation for support of scientific research, implemented under the supervision of leading scientists in Russian institutions of higher education in the field "Space Research and Technologies" in 2011–2013.
The quality of education in the United States has been heavily criticized in part because of U.S. students’ performance on international tests, such as the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Although simple country averages may support such criticisms, there are many problems in comparing test scores of students in the U.S. as a whole with students in countries with very different social and educational environments. Not least of these problems is that students in the United States do not attend school in a “U.S. educational system,” but rather in at least 51 different systems, many of which have experienced very significant progress over time. The most relevant lessons for improving U.S. education may therefore be found in our successful states, rather than in other countries.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.