О пределах возможности инфляционного таргетирования
The problem of optimal monetary policy is extremely relevant for Russia. Although the monetary authority claims that inflation targeting is the main goal of the monetary policy, empirical finding suggest that the real exchange rate targeting is of major importance (see Vdovichenko / Voronina 2004). Due to the rising flow of petrodollars, the rouble is currently experiencing a significant real appreciation. The fear to harm exports causes the monetary authority to respond by accumulating dollar reserves and increasing the money supply, thus preventing a nominal appreciation. Such policy leads to high inflation which benefits of some groups at the expense of others. That is why the optimal degree of intervention is in the centre of the current political and economic debate.
Дивидендная политика Рынок акций Технический анализ
Ключевые слова: экс-дивидендная дата, падение цены акции, захват дивиденда, налог на прирост капитала, НДФЛ, волатильность
In this paper we analyze official monthly inflation forecast in Russia using ARMA-model. The main purpose of the analysis is to test hypotheses about whether the official inflation forecast is an instrument of monetary policy.