Changing characteristics of warfare and the future of Military R&D
Wars have been a part of humanity since prehistoric times, and are expected to remain an important component of future human societies. Since the beginning of the history wars have evolved in parallel with the changes in Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values (STEEPV). The changing circumstances unavoidably affect the characteristics of warfare through its motivations, shape and size. Armies have adapted themselves to these changing characteristics of warfare through Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) by introducing new military concepts and technologies. Based on the overview of the evolution of military technologies and concepts as a response to changing conditions, the aim of the present study is to anticipate what and how future technologies and concepts will shape warfare and drive impending RMAs. To answer this question, first the RMA literature is reviewed within a broader historical context to understand the extent to which military concepts and technologies affected the RMAs. Then, a time-based technological trend analysis is conducted through the analysis of military patents to understand the impact of technological developments on military concepts. Following the historical analyses, two scenarios are developed for the future of military R&D based on ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ factors. The article is concluded with a discussion about the implications of future scenarios for military R&D, and likely RMAs through the changes of concepts and technologies, and possible consequences such as transformations in organizational structures of armies, new skill and capacity requirements, military education systems, and decision-making processes.
In the world of rapidly developing Science and Technology (S&T), with increasing volumes of S&T-related data and greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research, technology mining (TM) helps to acquire intelligence about emerging trends and future S&T developments. The task is becoming crucial not only for high-tech startups and large organizations, but also for venture capitalists and other companies, which make decisions about S&T investments. Governments and Public Research Institutions are also among the main stakeholders and potential users of TM to set up R&D priorities, plans and programs according to the current and future state of S&T development. Term clusters built by TM and bibliometric tools based on co-occurrence of authors’ keywords or terms processed from titles and abstracts of scientific documents combine totally different types of objects: research fields, major problems and challenges, methods, inventions, products, technologies and etc. Specific expertise in the field may allow a researcher to identify key objects of the study. However, objects themselves and their frequency dynamics over the time period alone do not fully indicate S&T developments and emerging trends in the area. In order to improve the process of the identification of emerging S&T trends and developments, the paper focuses on dynamic term clustering and suggests a systemic approach to combine TM, bibliometrics, NLP and semantic analysis as part of the unified analytical framework. The approach proposed utilizes existing clustering methods and tools along with the analysis of term linguistic dependencies in order to study changes of objects over the time along with their semantic meanings.
The current paper aims to present the Scan-4-Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty. Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan-4-Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high-value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues. The Scan-4-Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems. Scan-4-Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way. The Scan-4-Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions. The paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders.
In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.
Arabs, like all nomadic peoples, assigned a cruical role to the issues of war, fair fight, and personal generosity. Wars and battles were part of the sign-symbolic system in the space of the ancient Arabic culture, which was dominated by the will for to defence. Accordingly, weapons were involved in this system, being part of several cultural spheres: the sphere of primary production and livelihood, humanitarian sphere, and as well, as an integral part of war, of the socionormative culture.
It is to be considered that it is in the Arab culture where Islam was born, and in the Quran and the Hadith of the Prophet such things as war and weapons also found a place, which underlines the deep connection of religious culture and the weaponry complex in the worldview of the early medieval Arabs.
The significance of biotechnologies for solving global problems and making social and economic progress is recognized in many countries, including Russia. Managing this field requires up-to-date and reliable information about technological trends and the emergence and diffusion of innovations. This paper examines the possibility of applying a patent-based methodological approach to the study of biotechnologies in Russia, and assesses its explanatory potential.
In this study, we investigate how to identify and extract patent-related information from Facebook, the largest online social network. In the first step, we identified a list of trustworthy sources we started search from. Then, we developed algorithms for extracting and filtering information, and based on them software tool that is able to identify and deliver a patent, the Facebook post where it is mentioned and news / blog article which discuss it. We did a pilot test and collected more than 50 examples of articles (and Facebook posts) that add value to the patent they refer to. We classified collected articles and discussed how they can be used. Finally, we outlined where developed tool can be applied.
Abstract—On the basis of logical-probabilistic approach proposed risk model successful attacks on social media on the Internet in terms of information warfare. We formulated and investigated the criterion of decision-making framework to achieve the goals of information warfare. Proposed algorithmic foundations of the developed criteria in Hadoop cluster.
Tech Mining, a special form of “Big Data” analytics, aims to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI) using bibliometric and text-mining software (e.g., VantagePoint, TDA) as well as other analytical & visualization applications for analyses of Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) information resources. The goal of the conference is to ENGAGE cross-disciplinary networks of analysts, software specialists, researchers, policymakers, and managers toADVANCE the use of textual information in multiple science, technology, and business development fields. The conference program will address key CHALLENGES in:
DataSourcing, preparing, and interpreting data sources including patents, publications, webscraping, and other novel data sources
Text-mining tools and methodsBest practices in software-based topic modeling, clumping, association rules, term manipulation, text manipulation, etc. Visualization
Applied researchFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Intelligence gathering to support decision-making in the private sector (e.g., Management of Technology)
This conference is intended for researchers and students across multiple fields, especially Scientometrics, Public Policy, Management of Technology and Information Science.