Подходы к прогнозированию спроса на контейнерные перевозки в России и за рубежом

Аудит и финансовый анализ. 2016. № 6. С. 337–346.

Меланко А. Г.

This article describes current state of container shipping market and considers factors affected on container shipping demand including significant impact of macro environment factors. Approaches of demand forecasting in container shipping market were examinedfor both Russia and other countries. A new hybrid model, underpinned by the conducted analysis, was proposed. This model is a modification of balance models and data mining models.

Keywords: временной ряд, регрессионный анализ, fuzzy logic, нечеткая логика, demand forecasting, прогнозирование спроса, факторы макросреды, нейросетевое моделирование, regression analysis, контейнерные перевозки, гибридная модель, container shipping, macro environment factors, transport and economical balance, trend extrapolation, time series forecasting, hybrid model, транспортно-экономический баланс, экстраполяция тренда