Скромные демографические результаты пронаталистской политики в контексте долговременной эволюции рождаемости в России. Часть 2
The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong bases to support the increased optimism that demonstrated today by politicians and administrators of different levels? According to the author, there are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in the previous issue, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which presented in this issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.
Russia’s declining birth rate is linked to a delay in a family’s decision to have children and to uncertainty about the place of children in a couple’s relationship. Despite the rise of individualism and the importance of career and self-realization, however, the family retains a very important place in Russian society.
The second volume of the series "Demography. Sociology. Economics" is the result of work of the Centre of Social Demography and Economic Sociology of the Institute for Socio-Political Research with scientists from the Far East. The book consists of three sections. The first section deals with the general features of demographic processes and demographic policy in the Far East. The second section of the tendencies of migration processes and approaches to migration management. The third section presents articles on the problems of labor market and employment in the regions of the Far East. The book is recommended for students, postgraduate students, teachers, scientists and experts in the field of demography, migration and of the labor market, as well as all those interested in the Russian Far East.
In the article authors use the vital birh and death registration data on 10 regions exctracted from the Rosstat database to evaluate an input of international migrant into Russian fertility and mortality levels.
The authors discuss social and demographic processes in the rural regions of the Russian Near North and, first of all, in the Kostroma region – one of the socially problematic regions in the Russian Federation. In the article, the attention is focused on the analysis of mechanisms and assessment of scales of the depopulation: high mortality, migration of youth and middle aged people to the cities, deformations in age and gender structure with prevalence of the elderly population and a small share of children. The authors state essential distinctions of demographic indicators between municipalities in the Kostroma region and emphasize importance of social and demographic research on a basic municipal level. Indicators of the low life expectancy, high mortality caused by external reasons (alcoholism, murders, suicides, etc.), and high migration of youth are seen as the objective indicators of social problems in the local communities. It demands special attention on the part of the government authorities that plan social programs and take administrative decisions.
This chapter discusses the features of the development of the Russian population and the results of population projections to 2025
The aging of Russian population leads to inefficiency of Pay-As-You-Go system, where the benefits come solely from government taxation of current workers' wages, and seems to be one of the problems of Russian Pension System. This is the overview of Russian demographic settings compared to other countries from US CIA ranking. Long-run instruments of influencing demography in Russia are stated below.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.