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  • Скромные демографические результаты пронаталистской политики в контексте долговременной эволюции рождаемости в России. Часть 2

Article

Скромные демографические результаты пронаталистской политики в контексте долговременной эволюции рождаемости в России. Часть 2

Демографическое обозрение. 2016. Т. 3. № 4. С. 6-26.

The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong bases to support the increased optimism that demonstrated today by politicians and administrators of different levels? According to the author, there are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to face the pink glasses on the future of Russian fertility and reproduction of population of the country. With this paper, the author continues his previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility involving the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators in a few decades, as well as develops some methodological issues of the cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two interrelated parts. In the first part, presented in the previous issue, the author examines period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, which presented in this issue of the Journal, the author analyses cohort fertility indicators of generations of women, whose the actual and the expected reproductive activity has occurring in the second half of the XX - the first decades of the XXI century.