Decision making in the field of limiting anthropogenic impacts on the climate system, including climate itself, requires the estimates of consequences. The assessment of the confidence of estimates is important for the reliable justification of the decisions, in particular for the risk analysis. Such an approach was developed in scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in сontributions of its Working Group II’ Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’. The paper presents the evolution of the ‘risk’ concept in the IPCC scientific reports and current understanding of risk in the latest special reports of 2018-2019. This understanding is based on the fact that the risk arises from the interaction of three circumstances: the presence of climate-related hazard, exposure of the affected object to the hazard and vulnerability of the object. The main approach used in the IPCC reports for the aggregation and visualization of information on climate related changes in risk levels for natural and socioeconomic systems, as well as for human health, is the construction of ‘burning ember diagrams’, BE-diagrams. Some imperfections of BE-diagrams presented in publications, and insufficient degree of formalization of the procedure for constructing BE-diagrams in the IPCC reports are indicated. BE-diagrams are based on analyzing and summarizing data and information of two kinds: (1) the field observations’ results, experimental and modelling data available from scientific literature; (2) IPCC expert judgements. However, there is no IPCC published clear procedure describing the sequence of steps, staring from (1) and (2), required to assess risks and to build corresponding BE-diagrams. The paper provides an example of such a procedure, i.e. an algorithm for the construction of a visual image summarizing the assessment of adverse effects of climate warming on an agricultural crop, specifically, spring wheat. The approach to construction of BE-diagrams demonstrated with this example can be generalized and used in thedevelopment of BE-diagrams for other elements of natural or socio-economic systems affected by climate change. To ensure transparency of assessments of climate change impacts using BE-diagrams and possibility to repeat the assessments by different groups of users, a special IPCC Guidance note on this issue is needed
The article describes the results of the study of subjective well-being dynamics among primary school students. We consider well-being as a complex construct, which includes satisfaction with school, affect towards school, hostility, and collaboration with peers, and subjective physical well-being. We use the data of the two measures from the same students of 3rd and 4th grade from one of the Russian cities. We show that the level of subjective well-being decreases from the age of 9 to the age of 10 on all subscales, except the relationship with peers subscale and the subjective physical well-being subscale. We also found the gender differences: the boys are less satisfied with school, face the hostility more often and experience more negative emotions than girls. The results are consistent with the previous studies and give more specific information on what is happening with subjective well-being at an early age because most of the previous studies of the well-being in the school context use adolescents as a sample.
This article discusses the features of reading literacy of Russian primary school students identified in the analysis of the results of the international comparative study PIRLS. Comparing the results of 2006 and 2011 has identified changes that have occurred in reading literacy within 5 years. Using multiple methods of data analysis contributed to the reliability of the findings. Identify strengths and weaknesses in the reading literacy of primary school students can reasonably make changes to the methodology of work on the conscious reading in primary school.
Institutions affect investment decisions, including investments in human capital. Hence institutions are relevant for the allocation of talent. Good market-supporting institutions attract talent to productive value-creating activities, whereas poor ones raise the appeal of rent-seeking. We propose a theoretical model that predicts that more talented individuals are particularly sensitive in their career choices to the quality of institutions, and test these predictions on a sample of around 95 countries of the world. We find a strong positive association between the quality of institutions and graduation of college and university students in science, and an even stronger negative correlation with graduation in law. Our findings are robust to various specifications of empirical models, including smaller samples of former colonies and transition countries. The quality of human capital makes the distinction between educational choices under strong and weak institutions particularly sharp. We show that the allocation of talent is an important link between institutions and growth.