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Regular version of the site

Article

Global Energy Challenges and the National Economy: Stress Scenarios for Russia

Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 174-197.

Having reviewed existing global energy forecasts made by reputable multilateral and national government agencies, major energy corporations and specialized consulting firms, the authors noticed that most of them are by and large based on extrapolation of conventional long-term trends depicting gradual growth of fossil fuels demand and catching-up supply. Unlike this approach the paper focuses on the possible cases when conventional trends are broken, supply-demand imbalances become huge and the situation in the global energy markets is rapidly and dramatically changing with severe consequences for Russian economy, seriously dependent on fossil fuels exports. Revealing these stress scenarios and major drivers leading to their realization are in the focus of the research. Basing on STEEPV approach the authors start from analyzing various combinations of factors capable to launch stress scenarios for Russian economy. Formulating concrete stress scenarios and assessing their negative impact on Russian economy constitute the next step of the analysis. In conclusion the paper underlines the urgency to integrate stress analysis related to global energy trends into the Russian national systems of technology foresight and strategic planning, which are now in the early stages of development.