Global Energy Challenges and the National Economy: Stress Scenarios for Russia
Having reviewed existing global energy forecasts made by reputable multilateral and national government agencies, major energy corporations and specialized consulting firms, the authors noticed that most of them are by and large based on extrapolation of conventional long-term trends depicting gradual growth of fossil fuels demand and catching-up supply. Unlike this approach the paper focuses on the possible cases when conventional trends are broken, supply-demand imbalances become huge and the situation in the global energy markets is rapidly and dramatically changing with severe consequences for Russian economy, seriously dependent on fossil fuels exports. Revealing these stress scenarios and major drivers leading to their realization are in the focus of the research. Basing on STEEPV approach the authors start from analyzing various combinations of factors capable to launch stress scenarios for Russian economy. Formulating concrete stress scenarios and assessing their negative impact on Russian economy constitute the next step of the analysis. In conclusion the paper underlines the urgency to integrate stress analysis related to global energy trends into the Russian national systems of technology foresight and strategic planning, which are now in the early stages of development.
In the period after the global financial crisis of 2008, a new economic model have emerged - “platform capitalism”. Platform companies attracted huge ammount of money, allowing for a while to solve the problem of investment and supporting the financial market. The basis of this economic model is network effects produced by the integrated digital infrastructure, which contribute to monopolization and the constant expansion of platform companies in new areas. The principle of functioning of this infrastructure is the constant collection and further monetization of data extracted from the interactions of individuals with each other or with one of the elements of a digital economy or governance structures. This paper is devoted to the analysis of the logic of the emergence of “platform capitalism” as an effect of structural contradictions of neoliberalism (financialization, permanent market instability). The paper focuses on the transformation of the advertising market under the influence of platform companies, using the US example, to show the mechanism of digital disruption in print media business model. The development of digital infrastructure has allowed platform companies to collect and monetize data, deliver personalized ads to users throughout the internet. A structural shift has occurred - traditional media have ceased to be the main channels for transmitting advertising messages to certain social groups, advertising platforms are able to find them and deliver them ads on their own. In the framework of “platform capitalism”, many print media in order to survive try to transform themselves in accordance with the logic of the economic platform model (developing their website, data collection and monetization, integration into the logic of social networks).
Thepaperanalysestheroleofregulationinthesuppressionofdisruptiveinnovations and shows that this process might be explained by the dependance on the path of joint evolution of regulation and the mainstream technology. Industrial policy in highly regulated industries such as wireless telecommunications is able to support evolution of established technologies and adjust itself to sustaining innovations, while regulatory disconnection impedes disruptive technologies, and the market plays a quite secondary role in this process. We observe more innovations in those parts of telecommunications where regulator is less active, but the core, the physical layer, of the industry is changing in sustaining way of development of the technology. The paper argues that the problem of impediment to disruptive innovations could be alleviated if the crucial resources of the industry were accessible for a number of potential innovators and newcomers. The openness makes easier the appearance of disruptive technologies, and regu- lation must facilitate it in order to promote opportunities for creative destruction.
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming the agrarian and scientific-technical policy of the country by modeling stressful scenarios that can be realized in the domestic food sector as a result of triggering of certain drivers.
The paper examines the relational essence of education, and suggests a place to look for novelty elsewhere, outside the realm of disruptive innovations.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.