Промежуточные типы политических режимов и социально-политическая нестабильность. Опыт количественного кросс-национального анализа

Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2016. № 3. С. 31–52.

Korotayev A.

The article attempts to test the hypothesis that consolidated democracies and consecutive autocracies are more stable than intermediate regimes. The research conducted by the authors, with the help of data from CNTS and Freedom House, in general confirmed the presence of the U-curve relationship between the type of regime and the level of socio-political instability. At the same time, the study allowed to reveal a number of important details. Empirical tests have shown that (a) the U-curve relationship between socio-political instability and the ty pe of regime is usually characterized by a significant asymmetry; (b) the nature of this asymmetry may vary over time; (c) since the end of the Cold War, the U-curve relationship between regime type and level of socio-political instability has weakened considerably and has undergone significant changes. If in 1973—1991 the highest level of socio-political instability was demonstrated by unconsolidated democracies, in 1992—2012 it became more typical for inconsistent autocracies.

 

Keywords: политология, холодная война, политические режимы, политическая нестабильность, авторитарные режимы, социально-политическая нестабильность, анализ политических режимов, гибридные политические режимы

Publication based on the results of: The Arab Spring as the Trigger of a Global Phase Transition (2016)