Рождаемость в повторных союзах в России: позволяет ли вступление в новый супружеский достичь идеала двухдетной семьи?

Демографическое обозрение. 2016. Т. 3. № 1. С. 35–51.

Zakharov S. V., Churilova E. V., Agadjanian V.

The rapid deinstitutionalization of lifetime marriage in developed countries in the second half of the 20th century has resulted in increased proliferation and acceptability of diverse forms of marital unions. On the one hand, all developed countries have seen rising risks of dissolution of first marriages; on the other hand, this trend has been partly compensated by increases in second and subsequent unions. The demographic consequences of these fundamental social shifts in Russia have not yet been well studied. In particular, the contribution of higher-order unions to completed cohort fertility has not been adequately addressed, especially outside western settings. In this article, recent data from the longitudinal Generations and Gender Survey conducted in the Russian Federation were used to examine fertility in higher-order unions (marriages and cohabitations) among the post-war generations. The article contributes to the debate on the persistence of the two-child ideal in contemporary Europe by demonstrating how childbearing in higher-order unions corresponds to or deviates from this ideal in Russia. The results of the study show that higher-order unions play an important role in fulfilling reproductive aspirations. The contribution of births in such unions to the total number of births rose continuously during the observation period of 1950-2009. Entering a higher-order union makes it possible to compensate for the deficit of births that occurs at the pre-divorce and post-divorce stages. Although higher-order unions often are not registered officially, this does not prevent partners from carrying out their reproductive intentions. Entry into a higher-order union, whether registered or not, increases the probability that a woman will have two or more children, thus offering the possibility to conform to the social norm of the two-child family. However, for divorced women of reproductive age, success in finding a new partner remains a key factor determining the number of children they have.

Keywords: рождаемость, брак, сожительство, marriage, fertility, поколения, программа «Поколения и гендер», выборочное исследование «Родители и дети, мужчины и женщины в семье и обществе», Russian Generations and Gender Survey, cohabitation, higher-order unions, two-child ideal, повторные супружеские союзы, двухдетный идеал

Publication based on the results of: Изучение динамики формирования и развития семей и процессов рождаемости на данных выборочных обследований (2014)