Смертность и продолжительность жизни в России - что нового? Статья вторая
Regional variation of all features of mortality is quite significant. Being noted for many decades The North-Ost gradient of increased mortality rate continues its trend. In a time despite essential regional variation of mortality the difference in the orientation of its dynamic is not significant at all. An important condition for development of measures to ensure a decrease of mortality rate is information on social and demographic factors.
The monograph is devoted to the problems arising in the analysis of demographic processes, the calculation of net rates and assessment of reserves in the major life insurance contract. The results of studies involving various related parties of the analyzed issues. For example, given a detailed comparative analysis of pre- and disadvantages of organization of the insurance market in Russia and abroad. With used - vaniem various techniques built a ranking of countries in terms of development of the market under study.
The basis of actuarial calculations in the basic life insurance contracts are demo graphic processes: in particular, information about the mortality rate. The foundation for the construction of a net rates and valuation reserves in the life insurance contract is the data of mortality tables, which are based, in turn, is an indicator of how Vero die before reaching next age interval. In this regard, the authors present the theoretical aspects of the construction of the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts. The paper discusses methods of constructing mortality tables , raised the problem of statistical analysis of demographic processes in actuarial calculations, an overview of the basic formulas used to derive the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts.
The authors of the classification of the Russian Federation in terms of economic and demographic character. Some representatives of the obtained clusters The results of the study of the dynamics of demographic processes. It analyzes the main trends in life expectancy at age and sex and the regional context.
Of course, the authors have paid special attention to the analysis of the impact of demographic, financial factors on change of the tariff policy of life insurance contracts, as well as the impact on the rate and size of the allowance conditions of the contract. The research data for the city of Moscow as a financial and information center of Russia, which significantly affects the development of the insurance market as a whole (not only in the life insurance sector).
The results of these studies may be interested in a wide range of professionals in the field of economics, actuarial calculations in life insurance analysts.
BACKGROUND The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. OBJECTIVE In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. METHODS Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw) numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.
vCONCLUSIONS The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation.
The article deals with longevity risk, which is faced by non-state pension funds, and possible methods of its management. Longevity risk arises from uncertainty in future mortality trends and is related with the guaranteed lifelong pension payments. The emphasis is put on the impact of this risk on solvency of non-state pension funds. Results of the estimation show, that the effect is quite significant and longevity risk has to be controlled. Two possible methods of risk management for longevity risk are discussed: special reserves and life expectancy forecasting.
The book «Population development and population policy» (series «Population studies») is dedicated to the famous Russian demographer, Dr. Sc. (Economics), MSU emeritus professor A.Y. Kvasha. The authors are colleagues and students of A.Y. Kvasha. The first part includes biography of A.Y. Kvasha, list of his main scientific papers and PhD theses carried out under his supervision. The second part is devoted to reminiscences of his disciples and colleagues. The third part contains articles – their themes are associated with A.Y. Kvasha: demographic analysis and projections, population policy, economic, social and military demography. For researchers, post-doctoral fellows, students and anyone interested in population problems
A joint research project carried out by an interdisciplinary group of Russian and Swedish linguists, sociologists and educators-psychologists (the Swedish Institute grant), besides solving pragmatic tasks of finding out relative quantitative-qualitative specificity of national cognitive representations of values, first of all, had methodological goals. They were to check the efficiency of the linguistic methods developed in this study (and, thus, to prove the theoretical ideas that served the basis for it) of getting factual data that allow reconstructing and comparing of the corresponding areas of cognitive representations.
The results of cross-cultural research of implicit theories of innovativeness among students and teachers, representatives of three ethnocultural groups: Russians, the people of the North Caucasus (Chechens and Ingushs) and Tuvinians (N=804) are presented. Intergroup differences in implicit theories of innovativeness are revealed: the ‘individual’ theories of innovativeness prevail among Russians and among the students, the ‘social’ theories of innovativeness are more expressed among respondents from the North Caucasus, Tuva and among the teachers. Using the structural equations modeling the universal model of values impact on implicit theories of innovativeness and attitudes towards innovations is constructed. Values of the Openness to changes and individual theories of innovativeness promote the positive relation to innovations. Results of research have shown that implicit theories of innovativeness differ in different cultures, and values make different impact on the attitudes towards innovations and innovative experience in different cultures.
This book contains the proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Computer Supported Education (CSEDU 2012) which was organized and sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and technically co-sponsored by SPEE (Portuguese Society for Engineering Education), IGIP (International Society for Engineering Education), ROLE (Responsive Open Learning Environments) and IFIP TC3 (International Federation for Information Processing - Technical Committee 3 - ICT and Education).
CSEDU has become an annual meeting place for presenting and discussing learning paradigms, best practices and case studies that concern innovative computer-supported learning strategies, institutional policies on technology-enhanced learning including learning from distance, supported by technology. The Web is currently a preferred medium for distance learning and the learning practice in this context is usually referred to as e-learning or technology-enhanced learning. CSEDU 2012 is expected to give an overview of the state of the art in technology-enhanced learning and to also outline upcoming trends and promote discussions about the education potential of new learning technologies in the academic and corporate world.
This conference brings together researchers and practitioners interested in methodologies and applications related to the education field. It has five main topic areas, covering different aspects of Computer Supported Education, including "Information Technologies Supporting Learning", "Learning/Teaching Methodologies and Assessment", "Social Context and Learning Environments", "Domain Applications and Case Studies" and "Ubiquitous Learning". We believe the proceedings, demonstrate new and innovative solutions, and highlight technical problems in each field that are challenging and worthwhile.
CSEDU 2012 received 243 paper submissions from 58 countries in all continents. A double-blind review process was enforced, with the help of the 297 experts who are members of the conference program committee, all of them internationally recognized in one of the main conference topic areas. Only 29 papers were selected to be published and presented as full papers, i.e. completed work (10 pages in proceedings / 30' oral presentations). 73 papers, describing work-in-progress, were selected as short papers for 20' oral presentation. Furthermore 37 papers were presented as posters. The full-paper acceptance ratio was thus 12%, and the total oral paper acceptance ratio was less than 42%. These ratios denote a high level of quality, which we intend to maintain and reinforce in the next edition of this conference.
The high quality of the CSEDU 2012 programme is enhanced by three keynote lectures, delivered by distinguished guests who are renowned experts in their fields, including (alphabetically): Joseph Trimmer (Ball State University, United States), David Kaufman (Simon Fraser University, Canada) and Hugh Davis (University of Southampton, United Kingdom).
For the fourth edition of the conference we extended and ensured appropriate indexing of the proceedings of CSEDU including DBLP, INSPEC, EI and Thomson Reuters Conference Proceedings Citation Index. Besides the proceedings edited by SciTePress, a short list of papers presented at the conference will be selected for publication of extended and revised versions in the Journal of Education and Information Technologies. Furthermore, all presented papers will soon be available at the SciTePress digital library.
The conference is complemented with two special sessions, focusing on specialized aspects of computer supported education; namely, a Special Session on Enhancing Student Engagement in e-Learning (ESEeL 2012) and a Special Session on Serious Games on Computer Science Learning (SGoCSL 2012).
Building an interesting and successful program for the conference required the dedicated effort of many people. Firstly, we must thank the authors, whose research and development efforts are recorded here. Secondly, we thank the members of the program committee and additional reviewers for their diligence and expert reviewing. We also wish to include here a word of appreciation for the excellent organization provided by the conference secretariat, from INSTICC, who have smoothly and efficiently prepared the most appropriate environment for a productive meeting and scientific networking. Last but not least, we thank the invited speakers for their invaluable contribution and for taking the time to synthesize and deliver their talks.