Impending Recession and How to Fight It. An Empirical Analysis of Russian Realities and Global Experience
This article considers the problem of autonomous recession as a drop in output not directly associated with the world economic situation, but mainly due to domestic supply and/or demand shocks. To determine possible factors of autonomous recession, we have studied the stylized facts and other characteristics of such periods in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2000–12, drawing analogies with the current Russian situation, from the standpoint of both causes of a potential recession and the response of the economic authorities, that is, a countercyclical economic policy. The latter considers global and Russian experience in determining the socalled output gap (the difference between potential and actual output), mainly using modeling approaches for Russia with “nonaccelerating inflation rate of production utilization factors.” Designs of an anticrisis policy are suggested with regard to autonomous recession, the utilization of productive potential, and the characteristic features of the Russian economy as mainly resource-based and thus unusually procyclical from the point of view of macroeconomic indicators.
Our work is related to the recent literature on the link between business and financial cycles [Alessi, Detken, 2011; Claesens et al., 2011; Schularick, Taylor, 2011]. In our paper we will concentrate on the developments in emerging markets meaning that due to data availability our analysis will be effectively limited to the latest boom/bust episode. That closely links our work with the literature that analyses the main factors explaining output fluctuations during the crisis of 2008 [Frankel, Saravelos, 2010; Lane, Milesi-Ferretti, 2010; Cecchetti et al., 2011; Feldkircher, 2012]. Our main contribution to these strands of research is that we follow [Alberola et al., 2013; Borio et al., 2013; 2014] and employ the empirical model that enables us to decompose output fluctuations into cycle and trend components basing on the empirical relationship with various measures of imbalances. The resulting indicators may have economic interpretation as sustainable (i.e. not associated with buildup of imbalances) output and output gap.
This article describes the challenges facing established practices and patterns of human resource management (HRM) during the economic recession. It is based on the results of the CRANET survey, administered in Russia in the third quarter of 2008, on the 2008 CRANET data available for Bulgaria and on survey of companies’ executives, implemented in the first half of 2010. We found that Russian HRM practices that are based on low formalization of performance assessment, great versatility of payment arrangements, and high flexibility of working and contractual arrangements enabled companies to adapt to the recession conditions without massive layoffs.
To elevate forecasting precision of bankruptcy models the impact of macroeconomic factors on the company's operation has to be considered as well as financial indicators transformed and multidimensional logit analysis made. Besides, differences in the stages of bankruptcy process play an important role.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.