Прогнозирование численности клиентской базы компании на основе марковских цепей

Экономика и математические методы. 2016. Т. 52. № 1. С. 79–94.

Андреева А. В., Т. К. Богданова

The article represents the information and logical complex model to manage the company’s customer base in order to calculate the index of long-term value of the client. In contrast to the previous issues this model takes into account the peculiarities of consumer behavior and socio–demographic characteristics of the client groups, and the movement of customers within the customer base is represented as a Markov chain. Developed complex dynamic model to manage the company’s customer base makes possible to forecast the cluster frequency and the client base at all on any period, to analyze the population- change-dynamics of client cluster and to highlight the most important stages in the formation and development of the customer base. On each stage highlighted groups of clients are estimated according to future company’s profit and potential for cross selling of products/services. The estimates allow to calculate the budget for marketing activities on retention of given profit level and to compose the most effective plan of address–directed marketing activities.

Keywords: розничная торговля, retail trade, Markov chain, динамическая модель, customer loyalty, марковские цепи, лояльность клиента, управление клиентской базой компании, группы клиентов, management of customer base of the company, group of clients, dynamic model, long-term value of the customer base, долгосрочная стоимость клиентской базы