Аналитическое обоснование выбора объекта венчурных инвестиций
The paper is focused on the analysis of high-tech investment projects developed under high risk conditions and anticipation of high profits. The evidence of various kinds of uncertainty and qualitative characteristics of alternatives does not allow application of traditional methods of investment analysis. That is why it is recommended to use decision support systems (DSS) based on different methods of decision-making. The purpose of the paper is to develop a new approach based on the use of decision support systems, allowing to arrange comparison and assessment of alternative projects taking into consideration multiple criteria (including qualitative), to co-ordinate projects estimates received from different experts (taking into account their competence levels), as well as to use possible scenarios of the external environment evolution. The research tasks involve developing decision-making models using particular DSSs, application of different methods for justification of the object of venture investments choice, as well as determination of appropriate solutions and comparing the results. In the paper, such decision-making methods as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) are used. Application of some methods developed by the author, which combine different principles of co-ordination of the alternatives estimates, is also proposed. As a tool for solution of the task the most popular DSSs, including Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) developed under the author’s supervising, are applied. The results presented in the paper underline the effectiveness of the proposed approach for justifying the choice of an object of venture investments. Using of different DSSs allows application of various mathematical methods to improve the quality of the decision-making analytical justification. As a result of the research the task of an object for venture capital investments choice, using modern methods and tools is formulated and solved. The proposed approach can be applied in investment and venture funds.
Internal rate of return IRR is one of the key criteria for justifying and choosing capital investments with conventional cash flows. However, this criterion is not practically used when the rate of return of investment instruments (short sales, options, futures, swaps) is calculated because these instruments create non-conventional cash flows. The author previously showed that IRR problems were observed when the present value of cash flows changed sign from period to period. This paper offers a criterion to evaluate the rate of return of investment instruments with non-conventional cash flows, i.e. General Rate of Return (GRR).
Managing Intellectual Capital and Innovation for Sustainable and Inclusive Society: Proceedings of the MakeLearn and TIIM Joint International Conference 27–29 May 2015, Bari, Italy
In modern world enterprises need to be agile in their operation and structure to react to changes quickly. One of the open questions here is how to develop the enterprise, or, to be more precise, if enterprise needs to be developed, and if yes, in which way. In this research we are focusing on the case when enterprise stakeholders understand the need of enterprise development, have ideas for that, and they need decision support method to understand if enterprise restructuring is likely to be successful and cost effective. Another covered topic is how to choose the best option for restructuring from variety provided. In this paper we describe the developed decision support method which combines DEMO methodology and transaction costs theory for quantitative costs estimation. To make this method applicable and reproducible we proposed few enhancements to DEMO notation.
Decision support in equipment condition monitoring systems with image processing is analyzed. Long-run accumulation of information about earlier made decisions is used to realize the adaptiveness of the proposed approach. It is shown that unlike conventional classification problems, the recognition of abnormalities uses training samples supplemented with reward estimates of earlier decisions and can be tackled using reinforcement learning algorithms. We consider the basic stages of contextual multi-armed bandit algorithms during which the probabilistic distributions of each state are evaluated to evaluate the current knowledge of the states, and the decision space is explored to increase the decision-making efficiency. We propose a new decision-making method, which uses the probabilistic neural network to classify abnormal situation and the softmax rule to explore the decision space. A modelling experiment in image processing was carried out to show that our approach allows a higher accuracy of abnormality detection than other known methods, especially for small-size initial training samples.
In this work, in order of development of the previously proposed decision support system to counteract the development of infectious diseases (DSS «CDID») it is proposed evolutionary model (EM), that extends the capabilities of forecast – analytical studies on the spread of infectious disease processes for individual cities and areas of the country as a whole, as well as early assessment of ways solutions to the problems of prophylaxis and therapy in the study territories.
The paper deals with the influence of the growth opportunities on the company‟ investment policy. The analysis is based on the real options concept. It is shown that in the presence of valuable growth opportunities traditional methods of investment analysis can lead to the bias in the estimate of the investment project efficiency if the risks of the project are assumed to be equal to the risks of company's assets-in-place.
An outline of a few methods in an emerging field of data analysis, “data interpretation”, is given as pertaining to medical informatics and being parts of a general interpretation issue. Specifically, the following subjects are covered: measuring correlation between categories, conceptual clustering, and generalization and interpretation of empirically derived concepts in taxonomies. It will be shown that all of these can be put as parts of the same inquiry.
The textbook focuses on information support of a decision making process: problem statement, typical stages, approaches to modeling of decision making conditions, as well as consequences of different alternatives selection. The role of expert estimates is examined. Such estimated are used for determining probabilities of problem situation, determining experts' coefficients of competency, forming estimates of the alternatives. The features of group decision making are considered. Special attention is paid to decision support on the strategic management level, in the conditions of changing and hardly predictable environment. Approaches to modeling of problem situations related with possible states of the environment in the future are examined in details. The history, current classification and perspectives of development of modern decision support systems, as well as their role in the integrated management information system are considered. In the textbook different decision support information systems (including ones developed in HSE Department of Business Analytics) are described. Description of the information systems are accomplished by the examples of their practical application. Business cases that are close to real decision making tasks are also examined. The textbook is compliant with current requirements of the Federal standard of higher education and may be useful for students, postgraduates and teachers working in the field of management, decision support and management information systems.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.
The manual is intended for students of Department of computer engineering MIEM HSE. In the textbook based on the courses "Economics of firm" and "the development strategy of the organization." Discusses the key conceptual and methodological issues of the theory and practice of Economics and development planning of the organization. The use of textbooks will enable students: to analyze key performance indicators, and use the tools of strategic analysis with reference to concrete situations in contemporary Russian and international business. Special attention is paid to the methods and systems of information support of the life support functions of business organizations and management methodology of innovation and investment. An Appendix contains source data for analysis of competition in a particular industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Over the last two decades national policy makers drew special attention to the implementation of policy tools which foster international cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we look at cases of Russian-German collaboration to examine the initiatives of the Russian government aimed at stimulating the innovation activity of domestic corporations and small and medium enterprises. The data derived from the interviews with companies’ leaders show positive effects of bilateral innovative projects on the overall business performance alongside with major barriers hindering international cooperation. To overcome these barriers we provide specific suggestions relevant to the recently developed Russian Innovation Strategy 2020.