Аналитическое обоснование выбора объекта венчурных инвестиций

Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения. 2015. № 41. С. 35–46.

Kravchenko T. K.

The paper is focused on the analysis of high-tech investment projects developed under high risk conditions and anticipation of high profits. The evidence of various kinds of uncertainty and qualitative characteristics of alternatives does not allow application of traditional methods of investment analysis. That is why it is recommended to use decision support systems (DSS) based on different methods of decision-making. The purpose of the paper is to develop a new approach based on the use of decision support systems, allowing to arrange comparison and assessment of alternative projects taking into consideration multiple criteria (including qualitative), to co-ordinate projects estimates received from different experts (taking into account their competence levels), as well as to use possible scenarios of the external environment evolution. The research tasks involve developing decision-making models using particular DSSs, application of different methods for justification of the object of venture investments choice, as well as determination of appropriate solutions and comparing the results. In the paper, such decision-making methods as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) are used. Application of some methods developed by the author, which combine different principles of co-ordination of the alternatives estimates, is also proposed. As a tool for solution of the task the most popular DSSs, including Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) developed under the author’s supervising, are applied. The results presented in the paper underline the effectiveness of the proposed approach for justifying the choice of an object of venture investments. Using of different DSSs allows application of various mathematical methods to improve the quality of the decision-making analytical justification. As a result of the research the task of an object for venture capital investments choice, using modern methods and tools is formulated and solved. The proposed approach can be applied in investment and venture funds.

Keywords: инвестиционный анализ, венчурный фонд, система поддержки принятия решений, investment analysis, decision support systems, venture capital fund, decision-making method, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, метод принятия решений, коэффициент согласованности Кендалла