Демографические перспективы Китая
China's economic success is largely determined by very low population dependency ratio. This situation was a result of the demographic policy in the PRC. However, another consequence of the same policy becomes imminent rapid aging of China's population. It is very likely that by the early 2030s the country after half a century of unprecedented success will enter a period of coping.
The article considers assisted reproductive technologies (ART) as modern instruments of demographic policy in European countries with low fertility. A special consideration is given to programmes of 'in vitro fertilization' (IVF), which give childless couples an opportunity to have children and thus contribute to raising fertility rates. The cost of ART is significantly lower than that of other measures for raising fertility. Therefore, these technologies have good prospects as a constituent part of the demographic policy in Russia.
36 scenarios of the population projection for Russia until 2030 are presented and analyzed. Prognostic hypothesis of changes in fertility, mortality and migration are described, and the choice of number of projection scenario is explained. Possible changes in the size and age structure of the population are considered. Particular attention is paid to future dynamics of the main large age groups (children, population in working age and elderly) and to the possible changes of dependency ratio.
The article views the recent fertility dynamics in a number of Tropical African countries for which the necessary data is available. It is shown that in the majority of these countries fertility started to decline in the mid-1970-s – early 1990s. However, in the mid-1990s and early 2000s a mass fertility stall occurred throughout the great part of Tropical Africa. Importantly, in most cases fertility got stalled at very high levels, more than 5 children per woman. A decade-long absence of fertility decline bears serious threats of demographic explosions. We present some ways of avoiding the catastrophic scenarios.
In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious ageing population problems. But economic and political scenarios of the future are quite different: from resounding success and world leadership to collapse caused by demographic and socio-political troubles. Which of them is more feasible? In the present article I analyze the Chinese and Indian development models separately and comparatively and make a forecast of their perspectives in the twenty-first century. Such an analysis could be helpful for understanding Russia's ways of development.
The aging of Russian population leads to inefficiency of Pay-As-You-Go system, where the benefits come solely from government taxation of current workers' wages, and seems to be one of the problems of Russian Pension System. This is the overview of Russian demographic settings compared to other countries from US CIA ranking. Long-run instruments of influencing demography in Russia are stated below.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.