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Article

Переход к инфляционному таргетированию в экономике с неопределенными параметрами

Горизонты экономики. 2015. Т. 4. № 23. С. 116-130.

A model of small open economy with uncertain parameters is used to solve analytically for the monetary rule which is robust to possible model misspecifications. We show that optimal policy of central bank that is going to switch to inflation targeting depends on the extent and sources of uncertainty.  If the size of possible misspecifications is small central bank raises interest rate in response to all possible shocks. When a central bank is only uncertain about interest parity relationship it is optimal to decrease interest rate in case of inflation and output shocks and to increase it in case of exchange rate shocks.  The opposite is true if a policymaker is quite confident about interest parity. The effect of lower uncertainty on the optimal policy rule almost always coincides with effect of the switch to stricter inflation targeting.