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Влияние изменений в пенсионной формуле на принятие решения о выходе на пенсию

Ляшок В. Ю., Назаров В. С., Дормидонтова Ю. А.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate with the help of econometric methods, how sensitive the labour supply of elderly is to the changes in the pension system. We first analyze how a hypothetical increase of pension eligibility age would influence the economic activity of such individuals. The results of the simulation model show that a 5-year increase of pension eligibility age (up to 65 years for men and 60 years for women) would lead to an increase of economic activity of those whom this reform will concern by 11–14 pct. We next analyze how elderly would react to the changes in the pension legislation, which came into force in the beginning of 2015, in particular, the possibility to defer retirement in order to receive a higher pension later. Our estimates show that this mechanism gives incentives to postpone retirement only for women, but not for men.