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Article

Методологические подходы к разработке сценариев для проекта в сфере строительства

Вестник НГУЭУ. 2014. № 1. С. 115-134.
Назарова В. В., Морозова Е. В.

The reality is that uncertainty and different orientation of real estate market trends and a lasting time frame of investment planning are obvious nowadays. Under such conditions, the scenario analysis of risks increases the project loss assessment efficiency. In the long run, this fact might be of paramount importance in order to make efficient managerial decisions in the course of a project realization, moreover—  in order to make the final evaluation of a project.

The paper deals with groundbreaking distinctive characteristics of  scenario approach, i.e. review and collation of approaches, which are designed to define ‘scenario’ as a notion. The author classifies the approaches and presents methods of identification of scenarios as the most complex step in assessing a risk.  The results of the analysis will make it possible to develop a scenario algorithm for assessing risks of a residential real estate project.