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Article

Риски и шансы: принятие решений в условиях неопределенного будущего

Мадера А. Г.

People while make a decision is oriented primarily on dividends and profits (chances) which promised this decision and in the last instance – on those difficulties (risks) that may be encountered on the way to their goal. In other words future chances are the motivation that drives the activities and risks are warnings about the dangers. Therefore, for making the science-based decisions it is necessary to evaluation as chances so risks. In this paper we develop a method of decision making under uncertainty and actualization of the set of possible chances and risks in future. The method is based on the prediction and assessment of the future states of nature, chances and risks. To make the best decision complex criterion and a diagram of chances and risks, are introduced. The application of the proposed method is considered in the example.